Economics - Doctoral Theses

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The economic and social burden of population loss across Irish regions
(University College Cork, 2024) O'Driscoll, Josh; Doran, Justin; Crowley, Frank; O'Shaughnessy, Mary; Meredith, David; University College Cork
In recent years, academics and policymakers have increasingly focused on population dynamics, particularly the issues of population loss and demographic shrinkage. Considering this renewed interest, it is important to examine population changes and identify the underlying processes that drive or influence them. Population change is a complicated process that is multi-faceted and can be examined from several different perspectives. The work of this thesis aims to examine population shrinkage and growth using a multi-disciplinary approach, incorporating theories and methods of cartography, economics, and geography. Ireland is a country which has experienced a unique population journey over time. Following decades of decline from 1841 to 1961, the population sharply rose over the period 1986 to 2016, making Ireland an interesting case to examine population change dynamics. Using Geographical Information Systems frameworks and regression analysis, this thesis examines population change at a small area level (specifically the Electoral Division level) across Ireland for a generational period of 30 years. By doing so, three key research aims are achieved: 1) to identify areas in Ireland that are experiencing population shrinkage and growth; 2) to evaluate the significance of population density and proximity to large towns on spatial patterns of population shrinkage and growth over both the long term (a generational span of 30 years), and the short term (10 years); 3) to measure the effects of proximity to motorway access points on adjacent areas, focusing on population growth, employment growth, and commuting mode choices. To carry this out, a novel dataset comprising of seven Irish Censuses of Population from 1986 to 2016 is compiled at the Electoral Division level. This enables a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of population change overtime, and at a small area level. The data to facilitate this analysis is collected from several sources including the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ordnance Survey Ireland (OSi), Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII), and Open Street Map (OSM). This thesis makes several key contributions to existing literature. Firstly, using this data, the population change across Ireland’s Electoral Divisions are visualised producing clear spatial patterns across the country in Chapter 4. The resulting map indicates that the Irish population change story could be heavily dependent on spatio-geographic factors. The map provides both a long-term view of population change and shorter intercensal views of population change, helping to provide an in-depth analysis of population trends across time at the local level. Chapter 5 builds on this contribution by examining the role of population density and distance to large towns on population change across a 30-year period and three 10-year periods that match with the business cycle. In doing so, this contribution examines population loss across the urban-rural continuum, focusing on both urban and rural shrinkage. The core-periphery framework is incorporated into the approach in line with suggestions from existing literature. A research gap is addressed through considering the underrepresented temporal aspect of shrinkage, particularly assessing any commonalities or differences between long- and short-term shrinkage. It is carried out at a small area level to capture population change trends that might be hidden when using more aggregated spatial scales. The results for the 1986-2016 model find that distance has a positive effect on shrinkage, meaning it increases the likelihood of shrinking, albeit at a decreasing rate. Meanwhile, population density has a negative effect on shrinkage, meaning it decreases the likelihood of shrinkage at an increasing rate. These results generally remain consistent across the different time periods, except 2006-2016 where distance is insignificant. Thirdly, the role of motorway access on population growth, employment growth, and commuting mode choices is examined in Chapter 6. Through using a Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DiD) model, the thesis finds that areas accessible to motorway access points experience higher growth rates for population and employment compared to those that are not within 10km. Additionally, these treated areas have a higher percentage of commuters who commuted to work or school in 2016 by car, while also having a lower percentage of commuters who commuted by public transport. There are several key policy implications from this research. Firstly, Chapter 4 identifies clear spatial patterns of population shrinkage. Targeted regional development policies and programmes that consider the fact that shrinking EDs tend to be found in clusters, particularly in the West and Midlands may prove effective. Shrinking EDs clustered together may indicate that the population change in the area could be impacted by localised contextual factors. Targeting the clusters may tackle the widespread regional phenomenon, rather than individual cases, allowing the polices to be more comprehensive and targeted, as they may address the overarching needs of an area due to the different policies required for shrinking areas surrounded by other shrinking areas and shrinking areas surrounded by growing areas, while more small area level place-base policies can address the specific needs of the areas. Secondly, Chapter 5 finds that shrinkage occurs in all types of places including urban, rural and peripherally based EDs. As such, a one-size-fits-all approach is unlikely to be successful. Place based policies that address the specific needs of rural and peripheral areas, and not just translate policies that work in the core urban areas elsewhere would be more appropriate. Chapter 6 provides insight into the impact of the motorways on surrounding areas. While the motorway causes population and employment growth in these areas, there is the trade-off of these areas having a higher percentage of commuters travelling by car. This car-centric growth can lead to several challenges, such as higher carbon emissions and pollution. It is suggested that the government should take this into consideration as they attempt to move towards more sustainable modes of transport. It is crucial that the government balance the benefits from the motorway and the need to promote more sustainable and environmentally friendly modes of commuting. Simply building motorways is insufficient to address all regional challenges; complementary policies tailored to local needs, such as land-use planning, housing strategies, and economic support, are essential for sustainable growth and reducing peripherality.
Rent seeking and economic growth
(University College Cork, 2023) Trevisan , Claudia; Butler, Robert; Eakins, John; Shinnick, Edward
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of rent seeking on economic growth measured as Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in advanced and developing countries from 1985 to 2007. Although rent seeking is something that we know occurs, the research that has been devoted to it is rarely accurate and carefully described (Tullock, 2008:100). The theoretical foundation of this works lies in the 1982 work of Mancur Olson: The Rise and Decline of Nations and Tullock’s 1967 seminal paper The Welfare Cost of Tariffs, Monopolies and Theft. Olson (1982) describes the problem of “institutional sclerosis” caused by the accumulation over time in stable societies of special interest groups that reduce the efficiency of the economy in which they operate. Tullock (1967) described for the first time the effects of rent seeking on the economy. These two strains of the literature are usually discussed separately; however, the first part of this research shows that they can be reconciled. The variable that gave the most notable results in determining the effects of both rent seeking and institutional sclerosis on economic growth is the total number of trade associations. Since 1984 there has been mainly one source for this data: Saur’s World Guide to Trade Associations. This research uses the same source with an important difference: the count of trade associations for one of the editions used (i.e., 1985) is completely revised due to the identification of an issue with the data. The literature offers several approaches to the study of rent seeking. This thesis takes a macroeconomic approach, or “aggregate approach” (Del Rosal, 2011), as it does not aim at calculating the amount of resources wasted due to rent seeking activities but looks at the rent seeking consequences on the economy. In doing so it detaches itself from the literature in two ways. Firstly, it posits that the relationship between trade associations and growth is not linear but quadratic. Secondly, that trade associations do not act in a vacuum, therefore their effect should be interacted with the size of government. The research in the last two Chapters goes one step forward as, for the first time, a model looks at the effect of rent seeking at different levels of disaggregation of economic/industrial sectors. The findings show that the relationship between trade associations and growth is not linear (as most of the literature suggests) but is indeed quadratic. Therefore, suggesting that trade associations have a positive effect on growth which then turns negative. The relationship holds for different levels of development. Moreover, it shows that the effect of the number of trade associations on growth is conditional on government expenditure and that this effect differs depending on the level of development. The preliminary results in the two sectoral models show that some sectors have a stronger negative effect on growth compared to others, suggesting that this is the correct path to follow to understand the effect of trade associations on growth.
The role of household wealth in funding self-employment in European countries
(University College Cork, 2023) Liu, Yibin; Power, Bernadette; Doran, Justin; Chicago Society of Coating Technology; China Scholarship Council
This thesis explores the role of household wealth in funding self-employment across euro-zone countries. The thesis considers key types of household wealth (i.e., assets, liabilities, income, and inheritances) and their components. It uses a highly detailed cross-country micro dataset constructed from three waves of the European Central Bank’s Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), over the period 2010-2017. Household wealth is perceived as a vital financial resource in assisting would-be and actual self-employed individuals to alleviate financial constraints, which can significantly hinder the decision to be self-employed and impair the performance of self-employed business (Quadrini, 2009; Cole and Sokolyk, 2018; Levine and Rubinstein, 2020). The financial constraints experienced by those in self-employment are mainly triggered by asymmetric information in the capital market, and usually result in restrictive access to finance (Moscalu et al., 2020), limited credit financing and borrowing (Banerjee et al., 2017), and a lack of financial liquidity (Gentry and Hubbard, 2004). Within this context, different types of household wealth have been found to support those in self-employment to enable them to obtain finance (Bhaird and Lucey, 2010; Jensen et al., 2022; Åstebro and Bernhardt, 2003; Demirgüc et al., 2007; Lin et al., 2000). Essentially, household wealth is potentially able to enhance creditworthiness and add financial liquidity to self-employment and self-employed businesses. Existing literature focuses on one or two type(s) of household wealth, resulting in comparatively ambiguous findings about the influence of household wealth on funding self-employment. This thesis addresses this gap by extensively examining aggregate measurement of each key type of household wealth and detailed measurements of their components. Doing so allows this thesis to address three overreaching objectives: (1) to identify the difference in household wealth between self-employment and paid employment; (2) to investigate the impact of household wealth on the decision to be self-employed; and (3) to examine whether household wealth affects the performance of self-employed businesses. The first empirical Chapter of this thesis provides a comparison of household wealth between self-employed individuals and paid employees. A propensity score matching methodology is employed, which includes household assets, liabilities, other income (excluding self-employment income), and their components and inheritances, while also controlling for specific demographic factors. Results indicate that self-employed individuals hold more household real assets and inheritances than paid employees. However, the self-employed have less household income from other sources and have a lower level of secured loans in comparison with paid employees. The self-employed have higher level unsecured debts than paid employees. The discussion of the results for each component adds a comprehensive understanding to sources of differential household-level finance of self-employed individuals and paid employees in Europe. The second empirical Chapter disentangles the impact of household wealth on occupational decisions (self-employment vis paid employment). It uses an instrumental variables probit estimation to explore the significance of different types of household wealth and their components on an individual’s decision to be self-employed. Results reveal that, household’s assets and their components and liabilities generally encourage individuals to be self-employed, which adds new evidence to inform how financial constraints can be combatted (Zissimopoulos et al., 2009; Lim, 2018). The volume of household inheritances is not significantly associated with the decision to be self-employed. This Chapter also finds that household income diminishes the likelihood of being self-employed. To date detailed empirical evidence of the impacts identified in this Chapter do not exist in the literature. Therefore, this thesis offers a unique insight into household wealth as a potential financial resource related to the occupational decision to be self-employed. Lastly, the third empirical Chapter of this thesis investigates the ways in which household wealth impacts on the performance of self-employed businesses using a Heckman two-step estimation procedure. The results indicate that a positive impact is not only evident for total household real assets but also for the components of the real assets. Concerning total household liabilities, it is found to be positively associated with business value. The findings highlight the negative influence of the mortgage on household main residence, implying that pledging your household main residence to secure loans for business use seems to impair business performance. Finally, results suggest a negative association of household income from other sources and business value. By showing how the specific type and components of household-level finance are associated with the performance of self-employed business, this thesis provides novel evidence in a particularly underdeveloped area.
An analysis of subjective well-being in China
(University College Cork, 2024) Feng, Ruixue; Murphy, Rosemary; Walsh, Edel
Subjective well-being measures an individual's quality of life based on their own evaluation (Anusic et al., 2017). The importance of subjective well-being as a measure of individual and societal progress is increasingly recognised, leading to a rise in research on the topic (Knight et al., 2009). Cheng and Mishra et al. (2017) state that studying subjective well-being in China enhances the understanding of China's economy and society, and also helps to develop and extend existing theories of subjective well-being. This thesis aims to explore the factors associated with subjective well-being in China, where happiness is the measure of the concept of subjective well-being. The data used for this study is from the 2015 Chinese General Social Survey. To achieve this, the estimation models of subjective well-being are developed and the relationship between income inequality and subjective well-being is further analysed. Chapter 1 introduces the overall structure of the thesis, including the rationale, relevant background literature, data description, and analysis techniques. Chapter 2 reviews previous literature on subjective well-being definitions and theories and describes the relationships between key factors and subjective well-being. Chapter 3 presents the analytical techniques used in this thesis. Chapter 4 describes the data used in this thesis, which is based on data from the 2015 Chinese General Social Survey. Chapter 5 analyses the factors associated with subjective well-being by applying the ordered probit model. Chapter 6 explores the factors associated with subjective well-being by implementing semi-nonparametric techniques to estimate the model of subjective well-being. In Chapter 7, the positive correlations between income inequality and subjective well-being in China are assessed and the mediating effect of relative income is investigated. The thesis employs ordered probit and semi-parametric techniques to investigate the correlation between various factors and subjective well-being in China. The analysis provides a number of findings: Firstly, age, religion, political status, health status, income, marital status, and social fairness are all positively associated with subjective well-being. Additionally, achieving education above the second level is positively correlated with higher levels of subjective well-being. A high frequency of social interactions and having a resident account (hukou account) are also associated with higher subjective well-being level. Conversely, employment in non-agricultural or agricultural sectors is found to have a negative impact on subjective well-being. Additionally, women report higher levels of subjective well-being than men. In addition to the above findings, the thesis highlights a significant relationship between income inequality and subjective well-being in China. It also confirms the mediating role of relative incomes in the relationship between income inequality and subjective well-being. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors associated with subjective well-being and point to aspects that can be taken into account in promoting the overall societal well-being. Economic literature suggests that an analysis of the factors associated with an individual's subjective well-being is necessary as it helps policymakers to increase the level of well-being of citizens, which is one of their goals (Dolan and White, 2007). This thesis uses a complex econometric approach to analyse and present these factors and possible explanations. Furthermore, the thesis analyses the relationship between income inequality and subjective well-being. Finally, the findings presented in this thesis can be used to provide potential policy recommendations for the implementation of the promotion of general social well-being in China
An analysis of firm dynamics and seedbed role
(University College Cork, 2023) O'Leary, Daragh; Power, Bernadette; Doran, Justin; Irish Research Council
Firm dynamics research can be considered an important area of study given the relationship between firm dynamics and economic growth. Firm births can increase economic growth and employment (Doran et al., 2016). Meanwhile firm deaths can reduce economic growth via increases in unemployment (Arcuri et al., 2019). However, firm deaths can also reallocate resources and create market room within the economy for other firms (Carree and Dejardin, 2020). Additionally, the post-entry growth of firms is an important aspect of firm dynamics for economic growth because most of the growth derived from entrepreneurship comes from a very small number of high-performing firms (Shane, 2009). As such, some have recommended the prioritising of investment into firms with fast-growth potential to achieve optimal economic growth (Du and Vanino, 2021). The importance of firm dynamics to economic growth is such that government organisations and policymakers look to promote entrepreneurship to achieve economic growth (BE, 2020; EU, 2021). Therefore, research concerning the birth, death, and performance of firms can be considered of interest to governments and policymakers as well as the academic literature. This Thesis looks to contribute to the small firm dynamics literature (Hopenhayn, 1992). Using Eurostat, OECD, and Irish Central Statistics Office data, econometric analysis is used to produce four empirical research papers which examine firm interrelationships, the regional determinants of firm births and deaths, and how the seedbed role influences the performance of new start-ups. This analysis provides several contributions to the literature. Firstly, the competition and multiplier effects set out by Johnson and Parker (1994) are examined and particular interest is paid to analysing these effects across different countries and over different periods of time. Secondly, the role of urbanisation and localisation economies as well as externalities related to regional diversification are examined in determining firm births and deaths across different countries while controlling for the mitigating effect of firm interrelationships. Thirdly, the role of relatedness is incorporated into firm interrelationships to see how competition and multiplier effects operate across different sectors (related and unrelated). Finally, a contribution is made to the literature concerning seedbed role, described by Beesley and Hamilton (1984), by analysing the influence of the seedbed process on the post-entry performance of new Irish firms. The findings of the analyses on firm interrelationships indicate that firm interrelationships can change across time and sectors. Evidence of the multiplier is observed over one year where firm births appear to increase firm births the following year. However, over two and three years, evidence for the competition effect is found whereby firm births can increase firm deaths in two- and three-years’ time and that firm deaths can increase firm births in two years’ time. Furthermore, multiplier effects appear more likely to occur between firms in related sectors and competition effects appear more likely to occur between firms in unrelated sectors. Significant variations in firm birth and death rates are also observed across countries. Findings regarding regional factors as determinants of firm births and deaths indicate that both urbanisation and localisation economies increase firm births and decrease firm deaths. Related variety appears to reduce firm births and increase firm deaths, while unrelated variety is found to increase firm births and decrease firm deaths. Finally, the seedbed process is shown to influence the growth of new Irish start-ups as firms set up by individuals who previously worked at firms which died are themselves more likely to die and more likely to have lower mean annual employment growth during their existence. However, they are also more likely to exhibit fast-firm growth at some point during their existence. Implications for policy and contributions for the literature are discussed in the Thesis.

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