Spatial and Regional Economics Research Centre - Doctoral Theses
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Item The economic and social burden of population loss across Irish regions(University College Cork, 2024) O'Driscoll, Josh; Doran, Justin; Crowley, Frank; O'Shaughnessy, Mary; Meredith, David; University College CorkIn recent years, academics and policymakers have increasingly focused on population dynamics, particularly the issues of population loss and demographic shrinkage. Considering this renewed interest, it is important to examine population changes and identify the underlying processes that drive or influence them. Population change is a complicated process that is multi-faceted and can be examined from several different perspectives. The work of this thesis aims to examine population shrinkage and growth using a multi-disciplinary approach, incorporating theories and methods of cartography, economics, and geography. Ireland is a country which has experienced a unique population journey over time. Following decades of decline from 1841 to 1961, the population sharply rose over the period 1986 to 2016, making Ireland an interesting case to examine population change dynamics. Using Geographical Information Systems frameworks and regression analysis, this thesis examines population change at a small area level (specifically the Electoral Division level) across Ireland for a generational period of 30 years. By doing so, three key research aims are achieved: 1) to identify areas in Ireland that are experiencing population shrinkage and growth; 2) to evaluate the significance of population density and proximity to large towns on spatial patterns of population shrinkage and growth over both the long term (a generational span of 30 years), and the short term (10 years); 3) to measure the effects of proximity to motorway access points on adjacent areas, focusing on population growth, employment growth, and commuting mode choices. To carry this out, a novel dataset comprising of seven Irish Censuses of Population from 1986 to 2016 is compiled at the Electoral Division level. This enables a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of population change overtime, and at a small area level. The data to facilitate this analysis is collected from several sources including the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ordnance Survey Ireland (OSi), Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII), and Open Street Map (OSM). This thesis makes several key contributions to existing literature. Firstly, using this data, the population change across Ireland’s Electoral Divisions are visualised producing clear spatial patterns across the country in Chapter 4. The resulting map indicates that the Irish population change story could be heavily dependent on spatio-geographic factors. The map provides both a long-term view of population change and shorter intercensal views of population change, helping to provide an in-depth analysis of population trends across time at the local level. Chapter 5 builds on this contribution by examining the role of population density and distance to large towns on population change across a 30-year period and three 10-year periods that match with the business cycle. In doing so, this contribution examines population loss across the urban-rural continuum, focusing on both urban and rural shrinkage. The core-periphery framework is incorporated into the approach in line with suggestions from existing literature. A research gap is addressed through considering the underrepresented temporal aspect of shrinkage, particularly assessing any commonalities or differences between long- and short-term shrinkage. It is carried out at a small area level to capture population change trends that might be hidden when using more aggregated spatial scales. The results for the 1986-2016 model find that distance has a positive effect on shrinkage, meaning it increases the likelihood of shrinking, albeit at a decreasing rate. Meanwhile, population density has a negative effect on shrinkage, meaning it decreases the likelihood of shrinkage at an increasing rate. These results generally remain consistent across the different time periods, except 2006-2016 where distance is insignificant. Thirdly, the role of motorway access on population growth, employment growth, and commuting mode choices is examined in Chapter 6. Through using a Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DiD) model, the thesis finds that areas accessible to motorway access points experience higher growth rates for population and employment compared to those that are not within 10km. Additionally, these treated areas have a higher percentage of commuters who commuted to work or school in 2016 by car, while also having a lower percentage of commuters who commuted by public transport. There are several key policy implications from this research. Firstly, Chapter 4 identifies clear spatial patterns of population shrinkage. Targeted regional development policies and programmes that consider the fact that shrinking EDs tend to be found in clusters, particularly in the West and Midlands may prove effective. Shrinking EDs clustered together may indicate that the population change in the area could be impacted by localised contextual factors. Targeting the clusters may tackle the widespread regional phenomenon, rather than individual cases, allowing the polices to be more comprehensive and targeted, as they may address the overarching needs of an area due to the different policies required for shrinking areas surrounded by other shrinking areas and shrinking areas surrounded by growing areas, while more small area level place-base policies can address the specific needs of the areas. Secondly, Chapter 5 finds that shrinkage occurs in all types of places including urban, rural and peripherally based EDs. As such, a one-size-fits-all approach is unlikely to be successful. Place based policies that address the specific needs of rural and peripheral areas, and not just translate policies that work in the core urban areas elsewhere would be more appropriate. Chapter 6 provides insight into the impact of the motorways on surrounding areas. While the motorway causes population and employment growth in these areas, there is the trade-off of these areas having a higher percentage of commuters travelling by car. This car-centric growth can lead to several challenges, such as higher carbon emissions and pollution. It is suggested that the government should take this into consideration as they attempt to move towards more sustainable modes of transport. It is crucial that the government balance the benefits from the motorway and the need to promote more sustainable and environmentally friendly modes of commuting. Simply building motorways is insufficient to address all regional challenges; complementary policies tailored to local needs, such as land-use planning, housing strategies, and economic support, are essential for sustainable growth and reducing peripherality.Item An analysis of firm dynamics and seedbed role(University College Cork, 2023) O'Leary, Daragh; Power, Bernadette; Doran, Justin; Irish Research CouncilFirm dynamics research can be considered an important area of study given the relationship between firm dynamics and economic growth. Firm births can increase economic growth and employment (Doran et al., 2016). Meanwhile firm deaths can reduce economic growth via increases in unemployment (Arcuri et al., 2019). However, firm deaths can also reallocate resources and create market room within the economy for other firms (Carree and Dejardin, 2020). Additionally, the post-entry growth of firms is an important aspect of firm dynamics for economic growth because most of the growth derived from entrepreneurship comes from a very small number of high-performing firms (Shane, 2009). As such, some have recommended the prioritising of investment into firms with fast-growth potential to achieve optimal economic growth (Du and Vanino, 2021). The importance of firm dynamics to economic growth is such that government organisations and policymakers look to promote entrepreneurship to achieve economic growth (BE, 2020; EU, 2021). Therefore, research concerning the birth, death, and performance of firms can be considered of interest to governments and policymakers as well as the academic literature. This Thesis looks to contribute to the small firm dynamics literature (Hopenhayn, 1992). Using Eurostat, OECD, and Irish Central Statistics Office data, econometric analysis is used to produce four empirical research papers which examine firm interrelationships, the regional determinants of firm births and deaths, and how the seedbed role influences the performance of new start-ups. This analysis provides several contributions to the literature. Firstly, the competition and multiplier effects set out by Johnson and Parker (1994) are examined and particular interest is paid to analysing these effects across different countries and over different periods of time. Secondly, the role of urbanisation and localisation economies as well as externalities related to regional diversification are examined in determining firm births and deaths across different countries while controlling for the mitigating effect of firm interrelationships. Thirdly, the role of relatedness is incorporated into firm interrelationships to see how competition and multiplier effects operate across different sectors (related and unrelated). Finally, a contribution is made to the literature concerning seedbed role, described by Beesley and Hamilton (1984), by analysing the influence of the seedbed process on the post-entry performance of new Irish firms. The findings of the analyses on firm interrelationships indicate that firm interrelationships can change across time and sectors. Evidence of the multiplier is observed over one year where firm births appear to increase firm births the following year. However, over two and three years, evidence for the competition effect is found whereby firm births can increase firm deaths in two- and three-years’ time and that firm deaths can increase firm births in two years’ time. Furthermore, multiplier effects appear more likely to occur between firms in related sectors and competition effects appear more likely to occur between firms in unrelated sectors. Significant variations in firm birth and death rates are also observed across countries. Findings regarding regional factors as determinants of firm births and deaths indicate that both urbanisation and localisation economies increase firm births and decrease firm deaths. Related variety appears to reduce firm births and increase firm deaths, while unrelated variety is found to increase firm births and decrease firm deaths. Finally, the seedbed process is shown to influence the growth of new Irish start-ups as firms set up by individuals who previously worked at firms which died are themselves more likely to die and more likely to have lower mean annual employment growth during their existence. However, they are also more likely to exhibit fast-firm growth at some point during their existence. Implications for policy and contributions for the literature are discussed in the Thesis.Item Urban sprawl: land-use, travel behaviours, and emissions in Ireland(University College Cork, 2023) O'Driscoll, Conor; Doran, Justin; Crowley, Frank; McCarthy, NoirinLand-use configurations determine the distribution and intensities of human activities across space while transport infrastructure determines the ability of goods, services, and people to travel across this space. Considering this relationship, it is important to understand how these mechanisms interact, but also how they can contribute to efforts to achieve sustainability in regional development while also positively benefitting local economies and social fabrics. By directly influencing regional time-space geographies, land-use configurations influence the efficiency with which finite resources, like land, are used while also defining local and regional connectivity, considerations which are directly related to economic, environmental, and social outcomes. In this regard, land-use developments in the Republic of Ireland have historically been characterised by urban sprawl, a developmental form which creates spatially segregated human settlements characterised by car-centric transport networks. Evidence suggests that these patterns inefficiently (and therefore unsustainably) use natural resources, like land, but also increase regional time-space geographies, characteristics known to influence economic, environmental, and social outcomes for individuals, households, and regions. Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), econometric techniques, and network analysis methods, this research investigates the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of regional development across Ireland and Europe. Using refined built and social environment data, nationally comprehensive Census data, and highly disaggregated spatial scales, this thesis provides substantial contributions to regional science by undertaking six empirical analyses. These investigations focus on four principal research questions, namely: 1) How do land-use configurations contribute to efforts to achieve sustainability in regional development across Ireland and Europe? 2) Can the incorporation of opensource data improve our understanding of land-use configurations and their ability to contribute to sustainability efforts? 3) What is the relationship between built and social environments, individual socio-demographics, trip-specific concerns, and travel mode choices when commuting and during school-runs? 4) How do land-use configurations and transport infrastructure provision impact the environmental degradation attributable to travelling when shopping? From a land-use perspective, I show that regions which minimise time-space geographies and incorporate higher levels of land-use mixing utilise land, infrastructure, and natural resources, like space, more efficiently than alternative regions. This is because more people and human activities are accommodated within smaller spatial scales, thereby reducing the spatial extents of developments, and by extension, the levels of natural landscape destruction attributable to human settlements. In addition to this, more compact developmental forms face lower development costs, increased market/amenity accessibility, and strengthened social fabrics – producing positive economic and social outcomes. From a transport perspective, these areas reduce the implicit costs associated with regular public and active transport use by reducing required travel times and distances, heightening the competitiveness and convenience associated with these modes. I argue that these characteristics positively contribute to altering regional transport hierarchies away from excessive car-use, and therefore prompt reductions in travel-related environmental degradation. I conclude this research by highlighting how land-use and transport policies can be coordinated around environmental goals whilst not compromising economic and social objectives within regional development. In this regard, I provide specific policymaking recommendations surrounding the use of these instruments to increase the efficiency and sustainability of land-use configurations while also catalysing shifts away from excessive car-use in favour of more sustainable alternatives. Of these, the principal recommendation is that future developmental proposals should prioritise maximizing the efficiency of existing man-made settlements and infrastructure prior to outward expansion. In urban areas, this relates to prioritising greater land-use mixing and vertical expansion, while in rural areas, this more so relates to reducing time-space geographies through multi-modal transport investment, initiatives which may stimulate the emergence of polycentric developmental patterns. Similarly, initiatives which alter regional transport hierarchies by reducing the implicit costs of public and active transport relative to cars are recommended. I end by highlighting the limitations of this work while also providing directions for future research.