Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus

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dc.contributor.author Killeen, Gerry F.
dc.contributor.author Kiware, Samson S.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-03T15:27:00Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-03T15:27:00Z
dc.date.issued 2020-07-03
dc.identifier.citation Killeen, G. F., Kiware, S. S. (2020) 'Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus', Infectious Disease Modelling, In Press, doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.006 en
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en
dc.identifier.endpage 52 en
dc.identifier.issn 2468-0427
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/10207
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.006 en
dc.description.abstract As every country in the world struggles with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential that as many people as possible understand the epidemic containment, elimination and exclusion strategies required to tackle it. Simplified arithmetic models of COVID-19 transmission, control and elimination are presented in user-friendly Shiny and Excel formats that allow non-specialists to explore, query, critique and understand the containment decisions facing their country and the world at large. Although the predictive model is broadly applicable, the simulations presented are based on parameter values representative of the United Republic of Tanzania, which is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response to avert a national catastrophe. The predictions of these models illustrate (1) why ambitious lock-down interventions to crush the curve represent the only realistic way for individual countries to contain their national-level epidemics before they turn into outright catastrophes, (2) why these need to be implemented so early, so stringently and for such extended periods, (3) why high prevalence of other pathogens causing similar symptoms to mild COVID-19 precludes the use of contact tracing as a substitute for lock down interventions to contain and eliminate epidemics, (4) why partial containment strategies intended to merely flatten the curve, by maintaining epidemics at manageably low levels, are grossly unrealistic, and (5) why local elimination may only be sustained after lock down ends if imported cases are comprehensively excluded, so international co-operation to conditionally re-open trade and travel between countries certified as free of COVID-19 represents the best strategy for motivating progress towards pandemic eradication at global level. The three sequential goals that every country needs to emphatically embrace are contain, eliminate and exclude. As recently emphasized by the World Health Organization, success will require widespread genuine national unity and unprecedented global solidarity. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier en
dc.relation.uri http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300208
dc.rights © 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co.,Ltd. Published under a Creative Commons license en
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ en
dc.subject Coronavirus en
dc.subject COVID-19 en
dc.subject SARS2 en
dc.subject Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 en
dc.subject SARS-CoV-2 en
dc.subject Model en
dc.subject Epidemiology en
dc.subject Outbreak en
dc.subject Zoonosis en
dc.subject Emerging infection en
dc.title Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Gerard Killeen, Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: gerard.killeen@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.date.updated 2020-07-03T15:17:20Z
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.internal.rssid 522594976
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Infectious Disease Modelling en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked Yes
dc.internal.licenseacceptance Yes en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress gerard.killeen@ucc.ie en


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© 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co.,Ltd. Published under a Creative Commons license Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co.,Ltd. Published under a Creative Commons license
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