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The impact of population change in China
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Date
2020-06-03
Authors
Tang, Zhengguang
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University College Cork
Published Version
Abstract
China initiated its population control policy (One-Child Policy) in 1978 to ease the
pressure of population growth, and implemented supporting policies in education and
public health to improve population quality in each ‘Five-Year Plan’ since 2001.
Considering the possible different impacts of population on economic growth, this
thesis systematically examines the impacts of population changes in both quantity and
quality on economic growth in China based on population quantity and quality policies.
Chapter One briefly introduces the background, rationale, data sources and thesis
structure. Chapter Two provides an overview of the theoretical and empirical literatures
on the impacts of population quantity changes on economic growth for provincial-level
data (29 provinces) in China, from 1985 to 2013. Chapter Three focuses on population
quality, which highlights that different definitions coincide with different research
techniques, and also outlines key education and public health policies pursued in China
over the period 1995 to 2015. Chapter Four identifies three cities selected for detailed
analysis of population quality with some preliminary descriptive data analysis. The
methods of index construction to produce indexes of population quality (based on
education and health) for the three selected cities are also introduced and applied. In
Chapter Five, using most up-to-date econometric techniques, the effect of population
quality on economic growth is estimated, building on the themes of education and
health presented in earlier chapters.
Tentative policy recommendations are put forward in Chapter Six drawing on the
empirical estimation results from preceding chapters. Some limitations of this thesis
and some suggestions for future research potential are also provided. Although
increases in the non-agricultural population and working-age population can drive
economic growth, total population growth remains a substantial barrier to economic
growth in China. Improving population quality (measured as the education and health
levels) is found to contribute to China’s economic growth in the long-term.
Description
Keywords
China , Population change , Economic growth
Citation
Tang, Z. 2020. The impact of population change in China. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.