Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

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dc.contributor.advisor Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. en
dc.contributor.advisor Murphy, Jeremiah D.G. en
dc.contributor.author Rogan, Fionn
dc.date.accessioned 2013-10-10T15:23:44Z
dc.date.available 2013-10-10T15:23:44Z
dc.date.issued 2013
dc.date.submitted 2013
dc.identifier.citation Rogan, F. 2013. Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland. PhD Thesis, University College Cork. en
dc.identifier.endpage 203
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/1248
dc.description.abstract Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher University College Cork en
dc.rights © 2013, Fionn Rogan en
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ en
dc.subject Natural gas demand en
dc.subject Decomposition analysis en
dc.subject Ex-post analysis en
dc.subject Carbon capture and storage en
dc.subject Techno-economic modelling en
dc.subject Energy efficiency en
dc.subject Residential building regulations en
dc.subject.lcsh Natural gas en
dc.subject.lcsh Energy consumption--Ireland en
dc.title Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland en
dc.type Doctoral thesis en
dc.type.qualificationlevel Doctoral en
dc.type.qualificationname PHD (Engineering) en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.check.info No embargo required en
dc.description.version Accepted Version
dc.contributor.funder Bord Gáis Éireann en
dc.description.status Not peer reviewed en
dc.internal.school Civil Engineering en
dc.internal.school Environmental Research Institute en
dc.check.type No Embargo Required
dc.check.reason No embargo required en
dc.check.opt-out Not applicable en
dc.thesis.opt-out false
dc.check.embargoformat Not applicable en
ucc.workflow.supervisor b.ogallachoir@ucc.ie
dc.internal.conferring Autumn Conferring 2013 en

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