Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

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dc.contributor.advisor Ó Gallachóir, Brian P. en Daly, Hannah E. en 2014-05-12T13:36:09Z 2014-05-12T13:36:09Z 2012 2012
dc.identifier.citation Daly, H. E. 2012. Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy. PhD Thesis, University College Cork. en
dc.description.abstract The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy en
dc.description.sponsorship Irish Research Council for Science Engineering and Technology (EMBARK Initiative) en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher University College Cork en
dc.rights © 2012, Hannah E. Daly. en
dc.rights.uri en
dc.subject Private car en
dc.subject Stock model en
dc.subject Transport energy en
dc.subject CO2 emissions en
dc.subject Transport demand en
dc.subject Baseline forecast en
dc.subject Transport energy modelling en
dc.subject Modal choice en
dc.subject Renewable energy en
dc.subject Travel behaviour en
dc.subject Energy systems modelling en
dc.subject Climate mitigation en
dc.subject Air pollution en
dc.subject Policy evaluation en
dc.subject Transport policy en
dc.subject Energy models en
dc.title Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy en
dc.type Doctoral thesis en
dc.type.qualificationlevel Doctoral en
dc.type.qualificationname PHD (Engineering) en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en No embargo required en
dc.description.version Accepted Version
dc.contributor.funder Irish Research Council for Science Engineering and Technology en
dc.description.status Not peer reviewed en Civil Engineering en Environmental Research Institute en
dc.check.type No Embargo Required
dc.check.reason No embargo required en
dc.check.opt-out Not applicable en
dc.thesis.opt-out false
dc.check.embargoformat Not applicable en

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© 2012, Hannah E. Daly. Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2012, Hannah E. Daly.
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