Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

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dc.contributor.author McGarrigle, Edward V.
dc.contributor.author Leahy, Paul G.
dc.date.accessioned 2015-05-06T11:45:47Z
dc.date.available 2015-05-06T11:45:47Z
dc.date.issued 2015-08
dc.identifier.citation McGarrigle, Edward V.; Leahy, Paul G. (2015) 'Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market'. Renewable Energy, 80 (8):517-524. en
dc.identifier.volume 80 en
dc.identifier.issued 8 en
dc.identifier.startpage 517 en
dc.identifier.endpage 524 en
dc.identifier.issn 0960-1481
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/1792
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.renene.2015.02.023
dc.description.abstract This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling. en
dc.description.sponsorship Irish Research Council (Embark Scholarship); Science Foundation Ireland (Stokes Lectureship en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier en
dc.relation.uri http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148115001135
dc.rights Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Renewable Energy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Renewable Energy [Volume 80, August 2015, Pages 517–524] http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.02.023 en
dc.subject Wind forecas en
dc.subject Unit commitment en
dc.subject Economic dispatch en
dc.subject PLEXOS en
dc.subject Autoregressive moving average en
dc.subject Curtailment en
dc.subject Stochastic scheduling en
dc.title Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Paul Leahy, Civil Engineering, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: paul.leahy@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.date.updated 2015-05-06T11:34:01Z
dc.description.version Accepted Version en
dc.internal.rssid 299798333
dc.contributor.funder Irish Research Council for Science Engineering and Technology en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Renewable Energy en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked No. !!CORA!! AV permitted, set statement. en
dc.internal.licenseacceptance Yes en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress paul.leahy@ucc.ie en

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