Irish GMS cost projections and its implications between 2016 and 2026

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dc.contributor.author Conway Lenihan, Aisling
dc.contributor.author Woods, Noel
dc.date.accessioned 2016-04-13T08:39:04Z
dc.date.available 2016-04-13T08:39:04Z
dc.date.issued 2015-11-07
dc.identifier.citation LENIHAN, A.C. and WOODS, N. 2015. Irish GMS cost projections and its implications between 2016 and 2026. Pharmacoeconomics 1: 101. doi:10.4172/pe.1000101 en
dc.identifier.volume 1 en
dc.identifier.issued 1 en
dc.identifier.startpage 101 (1) en
dc.identifier.endpage 101 (7) en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/2448
dc.identifier.doi 10.4172/pe.1000101
dc.description.abstract Introduction: Ireland had one of the highest pharmaceutical spends per capita in the EU in 2012. The General Medical Services (GMS) scheme is the largest community drug scheme in Ireland with approximately 40% of the population eligible for free drugs and appliances in 2012. The total cost of GMS prescriptions increased by 414% between 1998 and 2012. This paper projects Irish GMS cost from 2016 to 2026 and examines the implications of the estimated impact on GMS expenditure. Method: Central Statistics Office (CSO) population projections (2013) and HSE-PCRS GMS population prescription data (2012) were used to develop four variables; population, GMS coverage, average cost per claimant and claims rate. A Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model simulated the effect of these four variables on GMS costs, by health board region, age cohort and sex. Results: Irish population is projected to grow by approximately 10% between 2012 and 2026. The over 70s population is estimated to grow by 64% with the proportion of males growing by 72%. GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from €1.1 billion in 2016 to €1.8 billion by 2026. Age is a key driver of GMS expenditure, specifically those aged under 11 and over 70. The MCS results project that males, the Mid-Western and South Eastern regions are driving GMS costs in the under 11s. Females, Midlands and Southern regions are driving GMS costs in the over 70s. Conclusion: Population growth coupled with an aging population will impact future GMS costs. Targeted GMS policy changes such as co-payment charges, reference pricing, and generic substitution can help to contain future GMS expenditure. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher OMICS International en
dc.relation.uri http://www.omicsonline.org/archive-pharmacoeconomics-open-access.php
dc.relation.uri http://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/irish-gms-cost-projections-and-its-implications-between-2016-and-2026-pe-1000101.php?aid=62874
dc.rights © 2015 Lenihan AC, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. en
dc.subject Monte Carlo modelling en
dc.subject Drug prescribing en
dc.subject Pharmaceutical expenditure en
dc.subject GMS en
dc.subject Ireland en
dc.title Irish GMS cost projections and its implications between 2016 and 2026 en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Noel Woods, Centre For Policy Studies, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: n.woods@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.date.updated 2016-04-06T14:14:45Z
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.internal.rssid 343297648
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Pharmacoeconomics: Open Access en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked Yes. !!CORA!! SHERPA RoMEO open access blue publisher. Default policy, publisher's pdf can be submitted to open access repositories. en
dc.internal.licenseacceptance Yes en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress n.woods@ucc.ie en


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