Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Show simple item record Rücker, Viktoria Keil, Ulrich Fitzgerald, Anthony P. Malzahn, Uwe Prugger, Christof Ertl, Georg Heuschmann, Peter U. Neuhauser, Hannelore 2016-09-15T17:13:24Z 2016-09-15T17:13:24Z 2016-09-09
dc.identifier.citation Rücker V, Keil U, Fitzgerald AP, Malzahn U, Prugger C, Ertl G, et al. (2016) Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts. PLoS ONE 11(9): e0162188. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162188 en
dc.identifier.volume 11 en
dc.identifier.issued 9 en
dc.identifier.issn 1932-6203
dc.identifier.doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0162188
dc.description.abstract Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Public Library of Science en
dc.subject Charts en
dc.subject Cardiovascular disease en
dc.subject Death rates en
dc.subject Germany en
dc.subject German people en
dc.subject Age groups en
dc.subject Cholesterol en
dc.subject Health risk analysis en
dc.title Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Tony Fitzgerald, Epidemiology & Public Health, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en 2016-09-15T17:09:05Z
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.internal.rssid 364190513
dc.internal.pmid 27612145
dc.contributor.funder Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislaufforschung, Germany
dc.contributor.funder Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Germany
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Plos One en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked Yes en
dc.internal.licenseacceptance Yes en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress en

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