New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites

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dc.contributor.author Paranunzio, Roberta
dc.contributor.author Chiarle, Marta
dc.contributor.author Laio, Francesco
dc.contributor.author Nigrelli, Guido
dc.contributor.author Turconi, Laura
dc.contributor.author Luino, Fabio
dc.date.accessioned 2019-01-17T16:12:24Z
dc.date.available 2019-01-17T16:12:24Z
dc.date.issued 2018-11-13
dc.identifier.citation Paranunzio, R., Chiarle, M., Laio, F., Nigrelli, G., Turconi, L. and Luino, F. (2018) 'New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2673-4 en
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en
dc.identifier.endpage 20 en
dc.identifier.issn 0177-798X
dc.identifier.issn 1434-4483
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/7312
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/s00704-018-2673-4
dc.description.abstract Climate change is now unequivocal; however, the type and extent of terrestrial impacts are still widely debated. Among these, the effects on slope stability are receiving a growing attention in recent years, both as terrestrial indicators of climate change and implications for hazard assessment. High-elevation areas are particularly suitable for these studies, because of the presence of the cryosphere, which is particularly sensitive to climate. In this paper, we analyze 358 slope failures which occurred in the Italian Alps in the period 2000–2016, at an elevation above 1500 m a.s.l. We use a statistical-based method to detect climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of slope failures, with the aim to catch an eventual climate signal in the preparation and/or triggering of the considered case studies. We first analyze the probability values assumed by 25 climate variables on the occasion of a slope-failure occurrence. We then perform a dimensionality reduction procedure and come out with a set of four most significant and representative climate variables, in particular heavy precipitation and short-term high temperature. Our study highlights that slope failures occur in association with one or more climate anomalies in almost 92% of our case studies. One or more temperature anomalies are detected in association with most case studies, in combination or not with precipitation (47% and 38%, respectively). Summer events prevail, and an increasing role of positive temperature anomalies from spring to winter, and with elevation and failure size, emerges. While not providing a final evidence of the role of climate warming on slope instability increase at high elevation in recent years, the results of our study strengthen this hypothesis, calling for more extensive and in-depth studies on the subject. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Springer en
dc.relation.uri https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-018-2673-4
dc.rights © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2673-4 en
dc.subject Permafrost en
dc.subject Rock glacier en
dc.subject Mountain permafrost en
dc.title New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Roberta Paranunzio, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: roberta.paranunzio@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.check.info Access to this article is restricted until 12 months after publication at the request of the publisher en
dc.check.date 2019-11-13
dc.description.version Accepted Version en
dc.contributor.funder H2020 European Research Council en
dc.contributor.funder Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche en
dc.contributor.funder Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche – Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI)TorinoItal en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Theoretical and Applied Climatology en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked !!CORA!! en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress roberta.paranunzio@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.bibliocheck In Press Jan 2019. Update citation details, page numbers, add volume, issue en
dc.relation.project info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020::ERC::ERC-COG/647473/EU/Coping with water scarcity in a globalized world/CWASI en


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