An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland

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dc.contributor.author Doran, Justin
dc.date.accessioned 2012-11-14T16:48:19Z
dc.date.available 2012-11-14T16:48:19Z
dc.date.copyright 2012
dc.date.issued 2012-03
dc.identifier.citation An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland", International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 39 Iss: 3 pp. 221 - 237 en
dc.identifier.volume 39 en
dc.identifier.issued 3 en
dc.identifier.startpage 221 en
dc.identifier.endpage 237 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/782
dc.identifier.doi 10.1108/03068291211199387
dc.description.abstract Purpose – The purpose of this article is to analyse the effects of a declining birth rate and an increasing old age-population ratio on Ireland’s economic output. Design-Methodology/Approach – This paper utilises data on the birth rate, old-age population ratio, economic output and labour effort of the Irish economy to estimate a vector-autoregressive model. The results of this model are then analysed to test for the presence of Granger causality among these variables. In doing so it is possible to assess whether there are statistically significant causal relationships existing among these factors. Subsequently, impulse response functions are derived from this model in order to assess the magnitude of the causal relationships. Findings - The results suggest that declining fertility rates and increases in the old-age dependency ratio have a significant impact on labour effort and economic output. Labour effort is also found to explain variation in the fertility rate and economic output. Economic output is found to effect labour effort and the fertility rate. Social Implications – The results derived in this paper raise interesting policy implications. It is evident that Ireland’s declining birth rate and increasing old-age population ratio are creating a demographic situation which will have implications for future economic growth. Policies need to be put in place to mitigate the negative effects these factors will have on Irish growth. Originality/Value – This paper adopts modern econometric techniques to assess the causal relationships which exist between the demographic and economic factors considered. These have not previously been applied to the Irish situation. In doing this, this paper provides an important insight into the changing dynamics of the Irish economy. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Emerald Group Publishing Limited en
dc.relation.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/03068291211199387
dc.rights © Emerald Group Publishing Limited en
dc.subject Labour en
dc.subject Demographics en
dc.subject Granger causality en
dc.subject Economic growth en
dc.subject Population ratio en
dc.subject Ireland en
dc.title An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorurl http://research.ucc.ie/profiles/B008/justindoran en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Justin Doran, Economics, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: justin.doran@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.date.updated 2012-11-07T13:10:57Z
dc.description.version Accepted Version en
dc.internal.rssid 109202657
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle International Journal of Social Economics en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked No This is a green ranked journal on Sherpa. Therefore I have uploaded the post-print (ie final draft post-refereeing) copy of the paper. CORA - Romeo and Publisher's website Author Charter. Accepted Version required. en
dc.internal.licenseacceptance Yes en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress justin.doran@ucc.ie en


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