Predictors of an early death in patients diagnosed with colon cancer: a retrospective case-control study in the UK
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Published version
Supplementary file 1
Date
2019-06-19
Authors
Donnelly, Conan
Hart, Nigel
McCrorie, Alan David
Donnelly, Michael
Anderson, Lesley
Ranaghan, Lisa
Gavin, Anna T.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
BMJ Publishing Group
Published Version
Abstract
Objective: Despite considerable improvements, 5-year survival rates for colon cancer in the UK remain poor when compared with other socioeconomically similar countries. Variation in 5-year survival can be partly explained by higher rates of death within 3 months of diagnosis in the UK. This study investigated the characteristics of patients who died within 3 months of a diagnosis of colon cancer with the aim of identifying specific patient factors that can be addressed or accounted for to improve survival outcomes.Design: A retrospective case–control study design was applied with matching on age, sex and year diagnosed. Patient, disease, clinical and service characteristics of patients diagnosed with colon cancer in a UK region (2005–2010) who survived less than 3 months from diagnosis (cases) were compared with patients who survived between 6 and 36 months (controls). Patient and clinical data were sourced from general practice notes and hospital databases 1–3 years prediagnosis.Results: Being older (aged ≥78 years) and living in deprivation quintile 5 (OR=2.64, 95% CI 1.15 to 6.06), being unmarried and living alone (OR=1.64, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.50), being underweight compared with normal weight or obese (OR=3.99, 95% CI 1.14 to 14.0), and being older and living in a rural as opposed to urban area (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.21 to 3.17) were all independent predictors of early death from colon cancer. Missing information was also associated with early death, including unknown stage, histological type and marital/accommodation status after accounting for other factors.Conclusion: Several factors typically associated with social isolation were a recurring theme in patients who died early from colon cancer. This association is unexplained by clinical or diagnostic pathway characteristics. Socially isolated patients are a key target group to improve outcomes of the worst surviving patients, but further investigation is required to determine if being isolated itself is actually a cause of early death from colon cancer.
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Keywords
Predictors , Early death , Colon cancer
Citation
Donnelly, C., Hart, N., McCrorie, A. D., Donnelly, M., Anderson, L., Ranaghan, L. and Gavin, A. (2019) 'Predictors of an early death in patients diagnosed with colon cancer: a retrospective case–control study in the UK', BMJ Open, 9(6), e026057. (12pp.) DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026057