An epidemiological and economic simulation model to evaluate strategies for the control of bovine virus diarrhea in Germany

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dc.contributor.author Gethmann, Jörn
dc.contributor.author Probst, Carolina
dc.contributor.author Bassett, Jason
dc.contributor.author Blunk, Pascal
dc.contributor.author Hövel, Philipp
dc.contributor.author Conraths, Franz J.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-12-10T12:25:54Z
dc.date.available 2019-12-10T12:25:54Z
dc.date.issued 2019-11-19
dc.identifier.citation Gethmann, J., Probst, C., Bassett, J., Blunk, P., Hövel, P. and Conraths, F. J. (2019) 'An Epidemiological and Economic Simulation Model to Evaluate Strategies for the Control of Bovine Virus Diarrhea in Germany', Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 6, 406 (14pp). doi: 10.3389/fvets.2019.00406 en
dc.identifier.volume 6 en
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en
dc.identifier.endpage 14 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/9383
dc.identifier.doi 10.3389/fvets.2019.00406 en
dc.description.abstract Models can be used to plan, evaluate, and improve programs for animal disease control. In Germany, a nationwide compulsory program to eradicate Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is in force since January 2011. As it is associated with substantial expenditures, the program is currently under revision. To provide the basis for a science-based decision on the future course of BVD control in Germany, we evaluated 13 scenarios (sc1-13) with respect to the chance of reaching freedom from disease and their economic implications for a period of 20 years (2011–2030). To simulate the impact of different control strategies on disease dynamics, a disease spread model was developed. To estimate the effects of a transient infection (TI) on animal level, a gross margin analysis was performed. To assess the value of cattle that died prematurely, a valuation model was used. Finally, an economic model was developed to perform a cost-benefit analysis and to compare each control scenario with a baseline setting with no BVD control. Costs comprised the expenditures for diagnostics, vaccination, preventive culling, and trade restrictions. Benefits were animal and production losses avoided by having control measures in place. The results show that reducing the PI prevalence on animal level to 0% is only feasible in scenarios that combine antigen or antibody testing with compulsory vaccination. All other scenarios, i.e., those based exclusively on a “test and cull” approach, including the current control program, will, according to the model, not achieve freedom of BVD by 2030. On the other hand, none of the scenarios that may lead to complete BVD eradication is economically attractive [benefit-cost ratio (BCR) between 0.64 and 0.94]. The average direct costs of BVD in Germany are estimated at 113 million Euros per year (34–402 million Euros), corresponding to 28.3 million Euros per million animals. Only the concepts of the former and the current national BVD control program (“ear tag testing and culling”) may reduce the BVD prevalence to 0.01% with an acceptable BCR (net present value of 222 and 238 million Euros, respectively, with a BCR of 1.22 and 1.24). en
dc.description.sponsorship German Academic Exchange Service (grant no. 57389088) en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Frontiers Media en
dc.rights © 2019, Gethmann, Probst, Bassett, Blunk, Hövel and Conraths. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. en
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ en
dc.subject Bovine viral diarrhea en
dc.subject Disease control en
dc.subject Economic analysis en
dc.subject Cost-benefit analysis en
dc.subject Agent-based model en
dc.subject Dairy cattle en
dc.title An epidemiological and economic simulation model to evaluate strategies for the control of bovine virus diarrhea in Germany en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Philipp Hovel, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email:philipp.hoevel@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.internal.rssid 507050749
dc.contributor.funder Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft en
dc.contributor.funder Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Frontiers in Veterinary Science en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress philipp.hoevel@ucc.ie en
dc.identifier.articleid 406 en
dc.identifier.eissn 2297-1769


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© 2019, Gethmann, Probst, Bassett, Blunk, Hövel and Conraths. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2019, Gethmann, Probst, Bassett, Blunk, Hövel and Conraths. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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