An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting
Loading...
Files
Accepted Version
Appendix S1: List of equations (in Python)
Appendix S2: Parameters and initial values for stock variables
Appendix S3: Supporting information
Date
2020-02-27
Authors
Dural-Selcuk, Gozdem
Tunc, Huseyin
Tarim, S. Armagan
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Published Version
Abstract
In recent history, there has been an increasing concern about population aging and the associated increased economic burden in terms of high health-care expenses and pension payments. The need for decision support tools that can explore population dynamics has become a prominent issue. This study presents a comprehensive framework where one can scrutinize the key demographic drives of fertility (Total Fertility Rate/Age-Specific Fertility Rate) over macroeconomic indicators (technology, education, human capital) under exogenous mortality. The integrated model in this article is developed based on a reformulation of the unified growth theory. In the reformulated model, namely the "economy-demography model," the population age/sex structure is preserved, age-specific mortality is included, and fertility is measured in conventional demographic terms. The model is then presented in system dynamics framework, and its practical use is showcased with data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Description
Keywords
System dynamics , Ageing chain , Economic theory of fertility , Unified growth model , Cohort component modelling , Fertility decline , Transition , Mortality , Growth , Population , Validation , Stagnation , Malthus
Citation
Dural-Selcuk, G., Tunc, H. and Tarim, S. A. (2020) 'An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting', System Dynamics Review, 35(4), pp. 337-368. doi: 10.1002/sdr.1645
Link to publisher’s version
Copyright
© 2020 System Dynamics Society. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Dural-Selcuk, G., Tunc, H. and Tarim, S. A. (2020) 'An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting', System Dynamics Review, 35(4), pp. 337-368, doi: 10.1002/sdr.1645, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1645. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.