Full text restriction information:Access to this article is restricted until 24 months after publication by request of the publisher.
Restriction lift date:2022-02-27
Citation:Dural-Selcuk, G., Tunc, H. and Tarim, S. A. (2020) 'An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting', System Dynamics Review, 35(4), pp. 337-368. doi: 10.1002/sdr.1645
In recent history, there has been an increasing concern about population aging and the associated increased economic burden in terms of high health-care expenses and pension payments. The need for decision support tools that can explore population dynamics has become a prominent issue. This study presents a comprehensive framework where one can scrutinize the key demographic drives of fertility (Total Fertility Rate/Age-Specific Fertility Rate) over macroeconomic indicators (technology, education, human capital) under exogenous mortality. The integrated model in this article is developed based on a reformulation of the unified growth theory. In the reformulated model, namely the "economy-demography model," the population age/sex structure is preserved, age-specific mortality is included, and fertility is measured in conventional demographic terms. The model is then presented in system dynamics framework, and its practical use is showcased with data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute.
This website uses cookies. By using this website, you consent to the use of cookies in accordance with the UCC Privacy and Cookies Statement. For more information about cookies and how you can disable them, visit our Privacy and Cookies statement