Persistence of low wind speed conditions and implications for wind power variability

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dc.contributor.authorLeahy, Paul G.
dc.contributor.authorMcKeogh, Eamon J.
dc.contributor.funderScience Foundation Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderEnerco Energy Irelanden
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-18T11:08:15Z
dc.date.available2012-09-18T11:08:15Z
dc.date.copyright2012
dc.date.issued2012
dc.date.updated2012-09-17T12:34:14Z
dc.description.abstractAs the penetration of wind generation increases on power systems throughout the world, the effects of wind variability on power systems are of increasing concern. This study focuses on sustained occurrences of low wind speeds over durations ranging from 1 h to 20 days. Such events have major implications for the variability of energy yields from wind farms. This, in turn, influences the accuracy of wind resource assessment. The frequency analysis techniques commonly used to study wind variability cannot represent the autocorrelation properties of wind speeds and thus provide no information on the probabilities of occurrence of such sustained, low wind events. We present two complementary methods for assessing wind variability, runs analysis and intensity–duration–frequency analysis, both with emphasis on characterising the occurrence of continuous, extended periods (up to several days) of low wind speeds. Multi-annual time series of hourly wind speeds from meteorological stations in Ireland are analysed with both techniques. Sustained 20-day periods corresponding to extremely low levels of wind generation are found to have return periods of around 10 years in coastal areas. Persistent, widespread low wind speed conditions across the entire country are found to occur only rarely.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScience Foundation Ireland (Stokes Lectureship programme)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionSubmitted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationLeahy, P. and McKeogh, E. (2012) 'Persistence of low wind speed conditions and implications for wind power variability'. Wind Energy, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/we.1509en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/we.1509
dc.identifier.issn1099-1824
dc.identifier.journaltitleWind Energyen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/709
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en
dc.rightsCopyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: LEAHY, P. G. & MCKEOGH, E. J. 2012. Persistence of low wind speed conditions and implications for wind power variability. Wind Energy, published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/we.1509.en
dc.subjectWind resourceen
dc.subjectMeteorologyen
dc.subjectExtreme valuesen
dc.subjectIrelanden
dc.subjectIntensity–duration–frequencyen
dc.titlePersistence of low wind speed conditions and implications for wind power variabilityen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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