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Wind energy perspectives: climate change and economic viability of floating offshore wind
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Date
2022-04-01
Authors
Martinez Diaz, Abel
Journal Title
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Publisher
University College Cork
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Abstract
The increasing demand for clean energy is boosting the wind energy industry. Combatting the sources of climate change has become a priority in developed countries, and wind energy is poised to occupy a central role thanks to its technological maturity. However, several drawbacks are arising, e.g., the variability of the wind resource or the lack of onshore available areas. It follows that the further expansion of the industry relies on a deeper knowledge of the resource and the development of new technologies for wind energy harvesting. This thesis is devoted to the advancement of wind energy by investigating two fundamental aspects of its future: the evolution of the wind energy resource under the effects of climate change and the economic viability of floating offshore wind projects.
It has been demonstrated that global warming is affecting atmospheric circulation. Hence, there is value in evaluating future changes in the wind energy resource as a result of climate change – regions with a well-developed wind industry may see their wind resource endangered, while areas not yet explored may become attractive for the industry. In this thesis, the evolution of the future wind energy resource under the effects of climate change in the 21st century is studied in Europe and North America (two of the biggest markets for wind energy) using wind climate projections coming from 18 different global climate models (GCMs). These data on the future wind climate are produced following the novel narratives of socioeconomic development and land use, i.e., the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and therefore represent the most-up-to-date climate change scenarios, leading to different radiative forcing. Two climate change scenarios are considered: a business-as-usual scenario (SSP2-4.5), in which policies regarding climate change do not vary significantly; and a scenario of intensive energy consumption coming from fossil fuels (SSP5-8.5). General and regional trends of the future wind energy resource are assessed – mean value, overall variability and intra-annual variability of wind power density are evaluated. Drastic changes in the available wind resource are anticipated and therefore must be taken into consideration provided that future policies are similar to those in the scenarios considered.
Recently, the wind energy industry has found new areas for development in offshore regions, which present a stronger and steadier resource. With wind turbines mounted on jacket structures and monopiles, offshore wind farms are being installed in growing numbers. However, the majority of the offshore available areas have great water depths, precluding the installation of bottom-fixed turbines; hence, floating technologies represent a much more promising option. This thesis introduces a method to evaluate the economic viability of floating offshore wind projects by means of the levelised cost of energy (LCOE), which includes a breakdown of all the costs incurred in the lifetime of a project. By employing site-specific variables, the LCOE is computed and mapped in the European Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to identify regions with the most potential for the deployment of floating offshore wind turbines.
The contents of this thesis investigate two aspects that will be of great relevance for the development of wind energy in the 21st century and thus can be of great use for the industry. Both the method introduced, in the case of the LCOE of floating wind, and the results can be employed in future policy-making processes and the planning of new wind energy projects.
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Keywords
Wind energy , Climate change , Renewable energy , Offshore wind energy , Floating offshore wind , Shared Socioeconomic Pathways , Multi-model ensemble , CMIP6 , Levelised cost of energy , LCOE
Citation
Martinez Diaz, A. 2022. Wind energy perspectives: climate change and economic viability of floating offshore wind. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.