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Enhanced energy policy simulation modelling to understand past and inform future climate action in Ireland
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Full Text E-thesis
Date
2021-05-20
Authors
Mac Uidhir, Tomás
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University College Cork
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Abstract
Addressing the global threat of accelerated climate change requires the rapid decarbonisation of all energy/ non-energy systems worldwide. Societal frustration due to historic climate policy inaction underpins a political will, in many jurisdictions, to address the threat of global warming. Hence, it is important that this momentum is leveraged to ensure meaningful climate action is achieved.
The practicalities of tackling global warming require a diverse range of tools which can appropriately support the formation of climate policy in all economic sectors. This thesis aims to enhance the capacity of energy policy simulation modelling and generate new insights which can inform future climate action in Ireland. A suite of models was used to conduct an ex-post and ex-ante evaluation of climate policies in Ireland. Bespoke sectoral models were developed across different software platforms and merged with the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), providing a coherent multi-sectoral GHG model for Ireland.
This new modelling capacity was utilised to conduct an ex-post evaluation of a retrofit policy, quantifying an additional 86% energy savings which could have been achieved during the period 2010 - 2015. This result identified policy recommendations designed to deliver improved outcomes in future retrofit policies, highlighting the advantages associated with an output-based grant scheme versus a measure based one. Proposed 2030 policy targets were examined by analysing different diffusion pathways for electric vehicles and residential retrofits. This quantified an additional 2.15 MtCO2eq savings which could be delivered through early versus delayed action, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding key climate policies and their potential contribution towards Ireland’s projected gap-to-target (52 - 101 MtCO2eq). Delivering 840,000 electric vehicles and 500,000 residential retrofits could achieve approximately 14.7 – 32.6% of this remaining gap-to-target. This result demonstrates the need for policy implementation pathways, in place of end-of-period headline targets.
There is a need for robust simulation modelling tools which strike a balance between capability and accessibility. Policymakers need these tools to support the planning, implementation, and review phases of policy formation, enhancing the evidence-base and reducing the risks associated with the most severe and unanticipated consequences of climate policy. The newly developed LEAP Ireland GHG simulation model serves this purpose, functioning as an accessible communication tool which can provide an adequate representation of a complex energy system and useful policy insights. The new Application Script Editing Tool (ASET) adds value to this LEAP model by leveraging advanced scripting functionality within LEAP and providing a new means of constructing the model and conducting sensitivity analysis. While this analysis focused on Ireland, the approach and methods could be replicated in other regions.
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Keywords
Energy systems modelling , Simulation modelling , Low emissions analysis platform , Bottom-up , Top-down , Energy efficiency , Retrofit policy , Policy simulation
Citation
Mac Uidhir, T. 2021. Enhanced energy policy simulation modelling to understand past and inform future climate action in Ireland. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.