Private car transport and the 10% RES-T target - quantifying the contribution of EVs and biofuels

Abstract

In 2008, renewable energy accounted for less than 1% of final energy consumption in the Irish transport sector. In order to increase this share to 10% by 2020 as required under EU directive 2009/28/EC, the Irish government has introduced two specific measures: 10% of the transport fleet is to be powered by electricity by 2020, and an obligation on road transport fuel suppliers that biofuels account for a certain portion of their fuel sales. This study forecasts the impact of these existing measures towards meeting the 10% RES-T target by 2020, focussing on private car transport. The methodology presented is derived from a forecast of private car fuel demand based on a technological stock model of Ireland’s fleet. This paper demonstrates the use of this as a tool firstly as an energy forecasting technique and secondly as a method for evaluating the effects of policy measures on the technological composition and consequent renewable energy demand and related CO2emissions of private cars. Technological scenarios examined in this light are electric vehicles, compressed natural gas vehicles and biofuel blending