Innovative approaches to developing deep decarbonisation strategies

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Date
2019
Authors
Pye, Steve
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University College Cork
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Abstract
After years of discussion by the international community as to how best to tackle the challenge of climate change, the Paris Agreement in 2015 both refocused attention on the necessary climate mitigation goals and saw a shift towards a more bottom-up, country-led approach to delivering on this agreed ambition. It is in this context that the research presented in this thesis on Innovative approaches to developing deep decarbonisation strategies has been undertaken. Recognising that the energy system is the largest source of CO2 emissions contributing to climate change, analytical approaches such as those using energy models, are needed to help decision makers navigate the different options to drive the energy system towards being low carbon and net-zero emitting in future years. However, there is a question as to whether energy modelling, notably energy systems modelling, is fit-for-purpose or needs to further adapt and innovate. This concerns not only the functionality and credibility of the modelling tool, but also its application to the decarbonisation challenge, including the analytical process in which it sits. This research focuses on innovation in modelling approaches in two key interlinked areas; i) characterising deep uncertainty of the transition across different domains, and ii) opening up the analytical process to greater scrutiny and participation. The interlinkage is that ‘deep uncertainty’, which both reflects a lack of agreement on model framing, structure, and assumptions, and what constitutes a desirable outcome, necessitates enhanced scrutiny and participation by a range of stakeholders.
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Energy modelling , Decarbonisation pathways , Uncertainty analysis , Climate policy
Citation
Pye, S. 2019. Innovative approaches to developing deep decarbonisation strategies. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.