End-of-life investment decisions for windfarms: an opportunity for climate change and for energy community
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Full Text E-thesis
Date
2026-07-15
Authors
Mikindani, Dorcas
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Volume Title
Publisher
University College Cork
Published Version
Abstract
A growing share of onshore wind farms is approaching the end of its originally permitted operational lifetime, creating an urgent need for robust decision-making frameworks to guide lifetime extension, repowering, and decommissioning. While early research primarily focused on deployment and cost reduction, end-of-life (EoL) decision making has emerged as a critical yet under-examined stage of the wind farm lifecycle. This thesis develops an integrated understanding of wind farm EoL decisions by examining the interaction between financial risk, investment flexibility, and community risk perception. The research adopts a mixed method approach and is structured around three complementary studies.
The first study quantifies the financial risks associated with turbine component failures over the operational lifetime of wind farms using stochastic modelling and tail-risk metrics. It shows how failure-driven losses generate substantial downside risk and erode economic viability. The second study applies real options analysis to evaluate the financial value of alternative EoL strategies under electricity price uncertainty revealing that repowering offers significant upside potential, while lifetime extension provides limited strategic value and decommissioning remains economically unattractive under most market conditions. The third study examines community investment behaviour using behavioural finance frameworks and survey data from developed and developing countries, showing how risk attitudes, experience, and institutional context shape investment decisions in wind energy.
By integrating these financial, operational, and social perspectives, the thesis conceptualises wind farm EoL as a strategic investment and governance problem embedded within complex socio-technical systems. The research delivers two complementary decision-support frameworks: one focused on commercial risk-based evaluation of EoL options, and the other on community investment and social feasibility. Together, these frameworks support more holistic, resilient, and socially legitimate EoL strategies, contributing to the long-term sustainability of wind energy infrastructure and the effective governance of ageing renewable assets in the energy transition.
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Keywords
Wind energy , End-of-life decisions , Renewable energy investment , Climate change mitigation , Energy community
Citation
Mikindani, D. 2026. End-of-life investment decisions for windfarms: an opportunity for climate change and for energy community. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.