Predicting the future distribution of a commercially important clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) in a changing climate

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Alexandra S.en
dc.contributor.authorBridges, Amelia E.H.en
dc.contributor.authorKnights, Antony M.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-24T15:49:54Z
dc.date.available2025-04-24T15:49:54Z
dc.date.issued2025en
dc.description.abstractThe Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, is a valuable commercial species for aquaculture, which in 2020, accounted for 24 % of global mollusc aquaculture. Given its economic importance, there is concern over whether this species may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change including changes in its distribution and sustainability. To test its vulnerability to climate change, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to predict both its current distribution and its future distribution under climate scenarios for end-of-century with focus on temperature and salinity changes. Future scenarios identified widespread local and regional changes in suitability. Across northern Europe and Alaska, a combination of continued or increased suitability for R. philippinarum was predicted. However, in the Mediterranean, and especially around Italy who are a major aquaculture producer of Manila clams, habitat suitability is predicted to decrease by more than 50 %. In Asia, especially below 20° N and above 40°N latitudes, habitat suitability is predicted to markedly increase but decrease dramatically between these latitudes. This is particularly the case along the coastline of China; the current global leaders in Manila clam production. Our results suggest the long-term sustainability of this species in countries like China and Italy may be threatened by climate change and action may be needed to conserve this species and support industry. Elsewhere, in countries like Norway, Alaska and Indonesia where increases in suitability are predicted in the future, expansion and/or investment in clam aquaculture production may represent an opportunity for economic growth and sustainable food production. en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid109307en
dc.identifier.citationJohnson, A. S., Bridges, A. E. and Knights, A. M. (2025) 'Predicting the future distribution of a commercially important clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) in a changing climate', Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 320, p.109307. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109307en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109307en
dc.identifier.issn2727714en
dc.identifier.journaltitleEstuarine, Coastal and Shelf Scienceen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/17328
dc.identifier.volume320
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAcademic Pressen
dc.rights© 2025, the Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAquacultureen
dc.subjectBiogeographyen
dc.subjectClimate resilienceen
dc.subjectSustainabilityen
dc.titlePredicting the future distribution of a commercially important clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) in a changing climateen
dc.typeArticle (peer reviewed)en
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
1-s2.0-S0272771425001854-main.pdf
Size:
3.11 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Published Version
Download
Collections
Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences - Journal Articles