Hindsight informs foresight: revisiting millennial forecasts of impacts and status of rocky shores in 2025

Simple item page
dc.check.date2027-06-12en
dc.check.infoAccess to this article is restricted until 24 months after publication by request of the publisheren
dc.contributor.authorHawkins, Stephen J.en
dc.contributor.authorO'Shaughnessy, Kathryn A.en
dc.contributor.authorBranch, George M.en
dc.contributor.authorAiroldi, Lauraen
dc.contributor.authorBray, Simonen
dc.contributor.authorBrooks, Paulen
dc.contributor.authorBurrows, Michael T.en
dc.contributor.authorCastilla, Juan Carlosen
dc.contributor.authorCrowe, Tasman P.en
dc.contributor.authorDavies, Thomas W.en
dc.contributor.authorFirth, Louise B.en
dc.contributor.authorHiscock, Keithen
dc.contributor.authorJenkins, Stuart R.en
dc.contributor.authorKnights, Antony M.en
dc.contributor.authorLangmead, Oliviaen
dc.contributor.authorLeung, Kenneth M. Y.en
dc.contributor.authorMieszkowska, Novaen
dc.contributor.authorMoschella, Paulaen
dc.contributor.authorSteyl, Ilseen
dc.contributor.authorTidau, Svenjaen
dc.contributor.authorWhittington, Marken
dc.contributor.authorThompson, Richard C.en
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-14T11:00:20Z
dc.date.available2025-07-14T11:00:20Z
dc.date.issued2025-06-12en
dc.description.abstractRocky shorelines are characterised by vulnerability to both land- and sea-derived impacts. They face acute impacts such as pollution from shipping accidents, chronic pollution from point sources, run-off and catchments plus disturbances by food gathering, recreation and sediment deposition in sheltered areas. Coastal urbanisation can both impact natural shores and create impoverished artificial rocky shores. Superimposed upon local and regional scale impacts are global environmental changes including warming, sea-level rise, increasing storm frequency, ocean acidification and non-native invasive species. Rocky shores are, however, amenable to long-term ecological monitoring and ecological experimentation. Thompson, Crowe and Hawkins (2002) reviewed anthropogenic impacts on rocky intertidal habitats and forecasted their status for the next 25 years. The paper was critiqued by invited experts (Branch, Castilla) at a subsequent conference in 2003 (Environmental Future of Aquatic Ecosystems, Zurich, 23-27 March 2003), culminating in a consensus chapter in Aquatic Ecosystems: Trends and Global Prospects (Branch et al., 2008). Nearly 25 years later, we revisit and evaluate their predictions to explore implications for the next 25 years as new potential impacts emerge in parallel with societal attempts to transition to net zero carbon outputs. An update is provided on what was largely correct (oil-spills, food harvest, invasive species, sedimentation/run-off, organotins, global-change, artificial habitats, recreation/research/education) and what was partially/completely wrong (eutrophication, aquaculture/GMOs, renewable energy, UV radiation) or omitted (coastal mining, ocean acidification, plastic, light, noise pollution). We also consider the challenges and uncertainties inherent in predicting impacts of environmental changes by using hindsight to inform foresight.en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid118214en
dc.identifier.citationHawkins, S. J., O'Shaughnessy, K. A., Branch, G. M., Airoldi, L., Bray, S., Brooks, P., Burrows, M. T., Castilla, J. C., Crowe, T. P., Davies, T. W. and Firth, L. B. (2025) 'Hindsight informs foresight: revisiting millennial forecasts of impacts and status of rocky shores in 2025', Marine Pollution Bulletin, 219, 118214 (34pp). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118214en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118214en
dc.identifier.endpage34en
dc.identifier.issn0025-326Xen
dc.identifier.journaltitleMarine Pollution Bulletinen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/17697
dc.identifier.volume219en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd.en
dc.relation.ispartofMarine Pollution Bulletinen
dc.rights© 2025, Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectIntertidalen
dc.subjectPollutionen
dc.subjectImpactsen
dc.subjectForesighten
dc.subjectHarvestingen
dc.subjectModified coastal processesen
dc.subjectGlobal changeen
dc.subject~Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences - Journal Articles~en
dc.titleHindsight informs foresight: revisiting millennial forecasts of impacts and status of rocky shores in 2025en
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
dc.typejournal-articleen
oaire.citation.volume219en
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Hawkins et al 2025_MPB_Pre-Proof.pdf
Size:
2.22 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Accepted Version
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
2.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences