AMOC preparedness for Ireland: From North Atlantic observation to national resilience

Kavanagh, Elena; McLeod, Iain

AMOC preparedness for Ireland: From North Atlantic observation to national resilience

Files

RGI_AMOC_Policy_Brief.pdf(1.72 MB)

Published Version

Date

2026-06-01

Authors

Kavanagh, Elena

McLeod, Iain

Publisher

Risk Governance Initiative

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major ocean circulation system that transports heat northwards through the Atlantic and plays a critical role in maintaining Ireland’s relatively mild climate. Scientific evidence indicates that AMOC is likely to continue weakening during this century as a result of climate change. The timing, magnitude and regional consequences remain uncertain, and a long-term shutdown remains a low-likelihood but high-impact possibility in mainstream assessment. This uncertainty is itself a policy problem: Ireland needs preparedness arrangements that can work under uncertainty rather than wait for certainty. Furthermore, the impacts of the long-term shutdown and the limited gradual decline are similar, just of different magnitude. Even the high-likelihood scenario of a limited gradual decline can have severe impacts on Ireland with increased seasonality both for temperature and rainfall. This means the differences between winter and summer rainfall and temperature will become stronger, and extreme events such as storms will become both stronger and more likely. This brief is intended to complement, not duplicate, existing research in Ireland. The 2025 Ryan Institute Policy Brief on AMOC Research in Ireland identifies urgent research, observation and communication gaps. The Environmental Protection Agency’s 2025 National Climate Change Risk Assessment provides a national evidence base for adaptation planning but explicitly does not assess low-likelihood high-impact events such as AMOC collapse. This brief therefore focuses on the governance gap between AMOC science and national preparedness. A policy dialogue convened by the Risk Governance Initiative Ireland in partnership with the Reykjavik Institute brought together experts and stakeholders from Ireland and Iceland to examine AMOC as a climate, resilience and risk governance challenge. Iceland is a useful comparator for Ireland because it is a small North Atlantic island state with long experience integrating environmental hazards into national security and emergency-management thinking.

Keywords

AMOC , Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation , Atlantic , Climate change , National preparedness , Ireland , ~Law - Reports~

Citation

Kavanagh, E. and McLeod, I. (2026) AMOC preparedness for Ireland: From North Atlantic observation to national resilience. Dublin: Risk Governance Initiative, pp. 1-3. Available at: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6a0521d786533f411c54711f/t/6a331ad6499b082eb5521c34/1781734102620/RGI_AMOC_Policy_Brief.pdf (Accessed: 19 June 2026)