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Depicting energy service demands as a mitigation lever in energy systems models
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Date
2024
Authors
Gaur, Ankita Singh
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
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Publisher
University College Cork
Published Version
Abstract
Energy Systems Optimisation Models (ESOMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are integral to informing climate change mitigation strategies and the associated policymaking processes. However, the techno-economic nature of these models restricts the representation of demand-side mitigation measures, which have been recognised to have substantial potential in meeting climate goals. Specifically, measures that can bring about a reduction in the level or structure of energy demand are often missing. Even when such measures \emph{are} included—often as exogenous scenarios—they are typically not well-connected to empirical evidence and lack spatial and demographic granularity. Moreover, these demand reduction measures are more relevant to developed countries like Ireland. In developing countries, access to energy services is disproportionately low, despite the higher growth in demand for energy relative to developed countries. Further, the representation of Global South regions is generally oversimplified in large-scale IAMs, often relying on stylised assumptions based on observations from Global North. This thesis seeks to address these gaps by adopting a dual approach of addressing demand-side mitigation while incorporating a particular perspective from the Global South region.
This thesis develops bottom-up projections of energy service demand for the TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM). The baseline energy service demands are driven by growth in population and economy. TIM is set up to allow for alternate scenarios for demand drivers that result in different energy service demand projections in the end-use sectors. The thesis develops the `Irish Low Energy Demand' (ILED) scenario where the impact of reducing and restructuring energy service demand on the whole energy systems is analysed using TIM. The results indicate that the ILED pathway is especially valuable in meeting near-term deep mitigation targets and lowers reliance on novel fuels and technologies. For policymakers, the recommendation is to expand the arsenal of mitigation measures, beyond policies that promote renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency.
It was observed that a pivotal driver of such Low Energy Demand (LED) scenarios both, at national and global level, is spatial settlement patterns. The LED scenarios heavily depend on future compact development. Hence, to improve the granularity and empirical basis of such scenarios, this thesis quantifies the relationship between population density and the energy as well as carbon intensity of the residential and transport energy service demands. Analysis reveals that the energy and carbon intensity of populations living in dense parts of Ireland are significantly lower than those living in sparsely populated areas. The future growth of cities and town in Ireland, whether compact or dispersed, will heavily determine emissions trajectory and mitigation options. This exercise allows future modelling studies to include spatial settlement patterns as a mitigation lever.
This thesis also analyses the impact of electrifying spatially dispersed residential heating demand on the Irish power system. This analysis is particularly important for Ireland: given the lack of a district heating network, electrification is the central heat decarbonisation policy. Utilizing a generation and transmission expansion planning model, the analysis finds that the spatial distribution of demand drives the investments in the power system. This again highlights the role of future spatial settlement patterns in decarbonising the Irish energy system. Further, electrifying residential heating via heat pumps leads to greater utilization of renewable energy, when combined with thermal energy storage.
In the next part, this thesis explores the gaps and challenges associated with representing Global South regions in a global IAM. With a focus on passenger mobility in South Asian countries, this thesis develops an evidence based framework to improve the quantification of sustainable mobility scenarios in global IAMs. A comprehensive literature review is conducted to identify measured causal relationship between various phenomena, such as urbanisation and passenger mobility patterns, placing an emphasis on literature focusing on South Asia and the Global South. These phenomena are incorporated into a novel mobility projection model designed to interface with an IAM. This is an innovative and adaptable framework, that can be applied to other Global South regions and other IAMs. Using this framework, four distinct mobility scenarios are developed, each reflecting alternate visions for mobility based on explicit futures for these phenomena.
Through the various research chapters, this thesis demonstrates the value of including demand-side measures in ESOMs and IAMs. It highlights how energy service demands can be managed to reduce GHG emissions, particularly in the residential and transport sectors. Further, by incorporating empirical evidence of the phenomena that drive energy service demands, the research develops methodologies to improve the quantification of decarbonisation scenarios in ESOMs and IAMs. And lastly, the inclusion of region-specific data for the Global South is a step towards more equitable practices within IAM frameworks.
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Keywords
Demand side mitigation , Energy systems optimisation models , Decarbonisation scenarios , Net-zero , Lifestyle and behavioural changes
Citation
Gaur, A. S. 2024. Depicting energy service demands as a mitigation lever in energy systems models. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.