Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate

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dc.contributor.authorAlkhayuon, Hassan
dc.contributor.authorTyson, Rebecca C.
dc.contributor.authorWieczorek, Sebastian
dc.contributor.funderEnterprise Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canadaen
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-06T12:30:22Z
dc.date.available2021-10-06T12:30:22Z
dc.date.issued2021-11-06
dc.date.updated2021-10-06T10:39:54Z
dc.description.abstractWe identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces tipping from a predator–prey cycle to extinction in two paradigmatic predator–prey models with an Allee effect. Our analysis of these examples uncovers a counterintuitive behaviour, which we call phase tipping or P-tipping, where tipping to extinction occurs only from certain phases of the cycle. To explain this behaviour, we combine global dynamics with set theory and introduce the concept of partial basin instability for attracting limit cycles. This concept provides a general framework to analyse and identify easily testable criteria for the occurrence of phase tipping in externally forced systems, and can be extended to more complicated attractors.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEnterprise Ireland (grant no. 20190771); Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Discovery grant no. RGPIN-2016-05277)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid20210059en
dc.identifier.citationAlkhayuon, H., Tyson, R. C. and Wieczorek, S. (2021) 'Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate', Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477(2254), 20210059 (26 pp). doi: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0059en
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rspa.2021.0059en
dc.identifier.eissn1471-2946
dc.identifier.endpage26en
dc.identifier.issn1364-5021
dc.identifier.issued2254en
dc.identifier.journaltitleProceedings of the Royal Society Aen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/12058
dc.identifier.volume477en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherThe Royal Societyen
dc.relation.urihttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2021.0059
dc.rights© 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectTipping pointsen
dc.subjectPhase tippingen
dc.subjectBasin instabilityen
dc.subjectClimate variabilityen
dc.subjectRate-induced tippingen
dc.subjectPhase tippingen
dc.subjectCyclic systemsen
dc.titlePhase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climateen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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