Access to this article is restricted until 24 months after publication by request of the publisher.. Restriction lift date: 2022-05-27
Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions
| dc.check.date | 2022-05-27 | |
| dc.check.info | Access to this article is restricted until 24 months after publication by request of the publisher. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Butler, David | |
| dc.contributor.author | Butler, Robert | |
| dc.contributor.author | Eakins, John | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-07-30T10:13:52Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-07-30T10:13:52Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020-05-27 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2020-07-30T10:08:07Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper analyses the forecasting accuracy of experts vis-à-vis laypeople over three seasons of English Premier League matches. We find that former professional football players have superior forecasting ability when compared to laypeople. The results give partial support to the view that a crowd forecast offers the greatest precision. Pundits generate a positive return while both the crowd and laypeople generate losses. As the prediction of multiple score outcomes represents a computationally difficult task, both groups display forecasting biases including a preference toward specific score forecasts. The results are relevant for those concerned with gambling behaviour if the forecasting strategies adopted here generalise to match betting markets. | en |
| dc.description.status | Peer reviewed | en |
| dc.description.version | Accepted Version | en |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | Butler, R., Butler, D. and Eakins, J. (2020) 'Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions', European Journal of Operational Research. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.034 | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.034 | en |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0377-2217 | |
| dc.identifier.journaltitle | European Journal of Operational Research | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10468/10334 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier B.V. | en |
| dc.rights | © 2020, Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This manuscript version is made available under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. | en |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | en |
| dc.subject | OR in sports | en |
| dc.subject | Prediction | en |
| dc.subject | Experts | en |
| dc.title | Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions | en |
| dc.type | Article (peer-reviewed) | en |
