Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions

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dc.contributor.authorButler, David
dc.contributor.authorButler, Robert
dc.contributor.authorEakins, John
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-30T10:13:52Z
dc.date.available2020-07-30T10:13:52Z
dc.date.issued2020-05-27
dc.date.updated2020-07-30T10:08:07Z
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyses the forecasting accuracy of experts vis-à-vis laypeople over three seasons of English Premier League matches. We find that former professional football players have superior forecasting ability when compared to laypeople. The results give partial support to the view that a crowd forecast offers the greatest precision. Pundits generate a positive return while both the crowd and laypeople generate losses. As the prediction of multiple score outcomes represents a computationally difficult task, both groups display forecasting biases including a preference toward specific score forecasts. The results are relevant for those concerned with gambling behaviour if the forecasting strategies adopted here generalise to match betting markets.en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationButler, R., Butler, D. and Eakins, J. (2020) 'Expert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictions', European Journal of Operational Research. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.034en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.034en
dc.identifier.issn0377-2217
dc.identifier.journaltitleEuropean Journal of Operational Researchen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/10334
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.en
dc.rights© 2020, Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. This manuscript version is made available under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectOR in sportsen
dc.subjectPredictionen
dc.subjectExpertsen
dc.titleExpert performance and crowd wisdom: Evidence from English Premier League predictionsen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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