Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate
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Published version
Date
2021-11-06
Authors
Alkhayuon, Hassan
Tyson, Rebecca C.
Wieczorek, Sebastian
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
The Royal Society
Published Version
Abstract
We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces tipping from a predator–prey cycle to extinction in two paradigmatic predator–prey models with an Allee effect. Our analysis of these examples uncovers a counterintuitive behaviour, which we call phase tipping or P-tipping, where tipping to extinction occurs only from certain phases of the cycle. To explain this behaviour, we combine global dynamics with set theory and introduce the concept of partial basin instability for attracting limit cycles. This concept provides a general framework to analyse and identify easily testable criteria for the occurrence of phase tipping in externally forced systems, and can be extended to more complicated attractors.
Description
Keywords
Tipping points , Phase tipping , Basin instability , Climate variability , Rate-induced tipping , Phase tipping , Cyclic systems
Citation
Alkhayuon, H., Tyson, R. C. and Wieczorek, S. (2021) 'Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate', Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477(2254), 20210059 (26 pp). doi: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0059