The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Conway Lenihan, Aisling
dc.contributor.author Kenneally, Martin
dc.contributor.author Woods, Noel
dc.contributor.author Thummel, Andreas
dc.contributor.author Ryan, Marie
dc.date.accessioned 2016-01-21T09:29:19Z
dc.date.available 2016-01-21T09:29:19Z
dc.date.issued 2014-10-21
dc.identifier.citation CONWAY, A., KENNEALLY, M., WOODS, N., THUMMEL, A. & RYAN, M. 2014. The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026. BMC Health Services Research, 14:477, 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-14-477 en
dc.identifier.volume 14 en
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en
dc.identifier.endpage 10 en
dc.identifier.issn 1472-6963
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/2203
dc.identifier.doi 10.1186/1472-6963-14-477
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND: As the health services in Ireland have become more resource-constrained, pressure has increased to reduce public spending on community drug schemes such as General Medical Services (GMS) drug prescribing and to understand current and future trends in prescribing. The GMS scheme covers approximately 37% of the Irish population in 2011 and entitles them, inter alia, to free prescription drugs and appliances. This paper projects the effects of future changes in population, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost on GMS costs in Ireland. METHODS: Data on GMS coverage, claims rates and average cost per claim are drawn from the Primary Care Reimbursement Service (PCRS) and combined with Central Statistics Office (CSO) (Regional and National Population Projections through to 2026). A Monte Carlo Model is used to simulate the effects of demographic change (by region, age, gender, coverage, claims rates and average claims cost) will have on GMS prescribing costs in 2016, 2021 and 2026 under different scenarios. RESULTS: The Population of Ireland is projected to grow by 32% between 2007 and 2026 and by 96% for the over 70s. The Eastern region is estimated to grow by 3% over the lifetime of the projections at the expense of most other regions. The Monte Carlo simulations project that females will be a bigger driver of GMS costs than males. Midlands region will be the most expensive of the eight old health board regions. Those aged 70 and over and children under 11 will be significant drivers of GMS costs with the impending demographic changes. Overall GMS medicines costs are projected to rise to €1.9bn by 2026. CONCLUSIONS: Ireland’s population will experience rapid growth over the next decade. Population growth coupled with an aging population will result in an increase in coverage rates, thus the projected increase in overall prescribing costs. Our projections and simulations map the likely evolution of GMS cost, given existing policies and demographic trends. These costs can be contained by government policy initiatives. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Biomed Central Ltd. en
dc.rights © 2014 Conway et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd., 2014. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. en
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ en
dc.subject GMS prescribing en
dc.subject Monte Carlo simulation model en
dc.subject Regional variation en
dc.subject Scenario analysis en
dc.subject Health status en
dc.subject Drug en
dc.subject Population en
dc.subject Claims en
dc.subject Impact en
dc.title The implications of regional and national demographic projections for future GMS costs in Ireland through to 2026 en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Martin Kenneally, Centre For Policy Studies, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-2572 Email: m.kenneally@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.contributor.funder Health Research Board en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle BMC Health Services Research en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked Open Access articles licensed via CC-BY 4.0 with UCC affiliated authors. Uploaded Jan 2016. en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress m.kenneally@ucc.ie en
dc.identifier.articleid 477


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

© 2014 Conway et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd., 2014. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2014 Conway et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd., 2014. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
This website uses cookies. By using this website, you consent to the use of cookies in accordance with the UCC Privacy and Cookies Statement. For more information about cookies and how you can disable them, visit our Privacy and Cookies statement