They’re heating up: Internet search query trends reveal significant public interest in heat-not-burn tobacco products

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dc.contributor.author Caputi, Theodore L.
dc.contributor.author Leas, Eric
dc.contributor.author Dredze, Mark
dc.contributor.author Cohen, Joanna E.
dc.contributor.author Ayers, John W.
dc.date.accessioned 2017-12-08T13:33:46Z
dc.date.available 2017-12-08T13:33:46Z
dc.date.issued 2017-10-11
dc.identifier.citation Caputi, T. L., Leas, E., Dredze, M., Cohen, J. E. and Ayers, J. W. (2017) 'They’re heating up: Internet search query trends reveal significant public interest in heat-not-burn tobacco products', PLOS ONE, 12(10), e0185735 (7pp). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185735 en
dc.identifier.volume 12
dc.identifier.issued 10
dc.identifier.startpage 1
dc.identifier.endpage 7
dc.identifier.issn 1932-6203
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/5149
dc.identifier.doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0185735
dc.description.abstract Heat-not-burn tobacco products, battery powered devices that heat leaf tobacco to approximately 500 degrees Fahrenheit to produce an inhalable aerosol, are being introduced in markets around the world. Japan, where manufacturers have marketed several heat-not-burn brands since 2014, has been the focal national test market, with the intention of developing global marketing strategies. We used Google search query data to estimate, for the first time, the scale and growth potential of heat-not-burn tobacco products. Average monthly searches for heat-not-burn products rose 1,426% (95%CI: 746,3574) between their first (2015) and second (2016) complete years on the market and an additional 100% (95%CI: 60, 173) between the products second (2016) and third years on the market (Jan-Sep 2017). There are now between 5.9 and 7.5 million heat-not-burn related Google searches in Japan each month based on September 2017 estimates. Moreover, forecasts relying on the historical trends suggest heat-not-burn searches will increase an additional 32% (95%CI: -4 to 79) during 2018, compared to current estimates for 2017 (Jan-Sep), with continued growth thereafter expected. Contrasting heat-not-burn’s rise in Japan to electronic cigarettes’ rise in the United States we find searches for heat-not-burn eclipsed electronic cigarette searches during April 2016. Moreover, the change in average monthly queries for heat-not-burn in Japan between 2015 and 2017 was 399 (95% CI: 184, 1490) times larger than the change in average monthly queries for electronic cigarettes in the Unites States over the same time period, increasing by 2,956% (95% CI: 1729, 7304) compared to only 7% (95% CI: 3,13). Our findings are a clarion call for tobacco control leaders to ready themselves as heat-not-burn tobacco products will likely garner substantial interest as they are introduced into new markets. Public health practitioners should expand heat-not-burn tobacco product surveillance, adjust existing tobacco control strategies to account for heat-not-burn tobacco products, and preemptively study the health risks/benefits, popular perceptions, and health messaging around heat-not-burn tobacco products en
dc.description.sponsorship US-Ireland Alliance (George J. Mitchell Scholarship Program); Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (Institute for Global Tobacco Control) en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Public Library of Science en
dc.relation.uri http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0185735
dc.rights © 2017, Caputi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. en
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject Electronic cigarettes en
dc.subject Tobacco control en
dc.subject Nicotiana en
dc.subject Japan en
dc.subject Smoking habits en
dc.subject Aerosols en
dc.subject Internet en
dc.subject Marketing en
dc.title They’re heating up: Internet search query trends reveal significant public interest in heat-not-burn tobacco products en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Theodore Caputi, Epidemiology and Public Health, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.contributor.funder Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
dc.contributor.funder US-Ireland Alliance
dc.contributor.funder Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle PLOS ONE en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress Theodore L. Caputi - no email en
dc.identifier.articleid e0185735


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© 2017, Caputi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2017, Caputi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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