Evaluating the impacts of legacy infrastructure and stranded assets on energy markets and utilities in low carbon energy systems

Abstract

This thesis contributes improvements to the modelling methods and evidence base for developing low-carbon policy measures and investment strategy. Techno-economic energy system models are integrated into investment appraisal frameworks to support policy and investment analysis. Beginning with a review of the literature on stranded assets; risks to gas infrastructure, subsequent impacts on energy markets and methods of measuring stranded assets, particularly the impacts of stranded assets on corporate debt, are highlighted as areas for further research. Consequently, gas infrastructure is analysed in two parts and at a national and European level. The first part questions whether there is a role for a gas network in a low carbon energy system by analysing its expected utilisation and subsequent tariffs. Next, both gas-fired power plants and gas transmission networks are evaluated based on their impacts on the harmonisation objectives of energy markets in Europe in 2030. Finally, the utilities operating this infrastructure are assessed under a novel investment framework. This framework measures the financial capacity that utilities have to transition to European net zero carbon targets, by proxy of their credit rating. Concluding that in all instances the financial risks arising from these fossil fuel infrastructures and climate policy targets could be mitigated if timely prudent management of these assets was pursued.