A forward-looking approach to climate change and the risk of societal collapse

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dc.contributor.authorSteel, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorPhillips, Charly
dc.contributor.authorGiang, Amanda
dc.contributor.authorMintz-Woo, Kian
dc.contributor.funderSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-20T10:17:21Z
dc.date.available2024-03-14T01:30:01Zen
dc.date.available2024-03-20T10:17:21Z
dc.date.issued2024-03-08
dc.date.updated2024-03-14T01:30:06Zen
dc.description.abstractThis article proposes a forward-looking approach to studying societal collapse risks related to climate change. Such an approach should indicate how to study emerging collapse risks and suggest strategies for adapting to them. Our approach is based on three postulates that facilitate a forward-looking approach: (1) collapse, if it occurred, would be a lengthy process rather than an abrupt event; (2) significant collapse risks already exist in some places; and (3) diminishing returns on adaptation to intensifying climate impacts are a key driver of collapse risks. The first two postulates suggests that collapse risks can be studied in process, while the third points to strategies for adaptation pathways that avoid unsustainable diminishing returns. Applying diminishing returns to climate change adaptation, rather than sociopolitical complexity or resource extraction, is also a novel theoretical contribution to collapse literature.
dc.description.sponsorshipSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (CANADA, Insight Grant number 435-2022-0189)
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Version
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid103361
dc.identifier.citationSteel, D., Phillips, C., Giang, A. and Mintz-Woo, K. (2024) ‘A forward-looking approach to climate change and the risk of societal collapse’, Futures, 158, 103361 (11 pp). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103361
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2024.103361
dc.identifier.eissn1873-6378
dc.identifier.endpage11
dc.identifier.issn0016-3287
dc.identifier.journaltitleFutures
dc.identifier.startpage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/15686
dc.identifier.volume158
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rights© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAdaptation
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectClimate ethics
dc.subjectComplex systems
dc.subjectInsurance
dc.subjectSocietal collapse
dc.titleA forward-looking approach to climate change and the risk of societal collapse
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)
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