Development of a methodology and modelling toolkit to aid carbon neutrality planning in industrial manufacturing
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Date
2024
Authors
O'Keeffe, Suzanne
Journal Title
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Publisher
University College Cork
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Abstract
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals emphasises the shift of economies toward carbon neutrality to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting legislation as well as corporate social responsibility are drivers for industrial decarbonisation. This thesis explores available technical support for Irish industrial organisations targeting decarbonisation and carbon neutrality. An extensive review of the current academic, public, and commercial supports is presented, and three research gaps are identified—open-access, detailed, cross-sectoral methodology with reference to a modelling tool; open-access modelling tool aimed at the organisational level with consideration of demand and supply measures; and a heuristic, bottom-up method of considering interaction effects between emissions-reduction measures based on industrial processes. In response, the overarching aim of this thesis is to develop a methodology and a modelling toolkit with consideration of interaction effects to aid Irish industrial organisations in planning and subsequently achieving carbon neutrality. A further aim is to quantify the financial impact of a carbon neutral industrial sector in Ireland.
A novel decarbonisation methodology based on quality management principles is proposed as a continuous improvement process with reference to a modelling toolkit. It is a nested methodology in which the top tier is a high-level methodology for early-stage planning and the bottom tier is a detailed methodology for in-depth planning. The toolkit comprises a novel high-level modelling tool for early-stage carbon neutrality within the high-level methodology, and a detailed project-based tool for in-depth carbon neutrality planning within the detailed methodology.
The high-level modelling tool uses readily available, site-level data as the model inputs. The model outputs are a five-year carbon neutrality roadmap and financial analysis based on decarbonisation measures in the order of demand reduction; energy efficiency; electrification through heat pumps for hot water loads and electric boilers for steam loads; adoption of renewable electricity; and carbon offsetting of remaining emissions. This modelling tool is intended as a decision support tool for investing in the studies required to pursue more in-depth carbon neutrality planning. Consequently, this modelling tool progresses the decarbonisation journey at a stage when progress typically stalls owing to lack of information or guidance.
For the project-based modelling tool, the main input is a register of emissions-reduction measures developed through site-specific energy audits, heat studies, and renewable energy studies. This modelling tool bridges the research and development gap between tools aimed at the country/regional level and commercial proprietary software aimed at the organisational level that do not offer structured roadmaps to carbon neutrality. However, validation of the tool through an industry partner case study highlighted the need to consider interaction effects between emissions-reduction measures.
To improve the project-based modelling tool, a novel rule-based method for the resolution of interaction effects between emissions-reduction measures is proposed. It evaluates the emissions source of each emissions-reduction measure and how it reduces emissions. This rule-based method was incorporated into the project-based modelling tool and deployed on three case studies. Results indicate a 43–56% overestimation in emissions abatement in the models without consideration of interaction effects; the results further indicate a substantial financial impact. Thus, this method combats the overestimation of potential emissions reductions in carbon neutrality planning.
A bottom-up financial model of Ireland’s industrial sector was developed using the case study models as a basis for scenario analysis of industrial sub-sectors. The potential financial investment required to achieve a carbon neutral industrial sector was calculated as €2-10 billion, which aligns with costs proposed in the Climate Action Plan.
The work presented in this thesis is demonstrated to meet the research objectives; it provides technical support for non-energy-intensive Irish organisations targeting carbon neutrality and assesses the financial impact of decarbonising the industrial sector.
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Keywords
Carbon neutral industrial manufacturing , Industrial decarbonisation
Citation
O'Keeffe, S. L. 2024. Development of a methodology and modelling toolkit to aid carbon neutral planning in industrial manufacturing. PhD Thesis, University College Cork.