Spatial and temporal variation in mortality from avian influenza in Greenland Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis in their wintering grounds

dc.check.date2025-12-23en
dc.check.infoAccess to this article is restricted until 12 months after publication by request of the publisheren
dc.contributor.authorPercival, Steveen
dc.contributor.authorBowler, Johnen
dc.contributor.authorCabot, Daviden
dc.contributor.authorDuffield, Steveen
dc.contributor.authorEnright, Martinen
dc.contributor.authorHow, Jamesen
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Carlen
dc.contributor.authorPercival, Traceyen
dc.contributor.authorSigfusson, Arnoren
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-16T14:15:11Z
dc.date.available2025-01-16T14:15:11Z
dc.date.issued2024-12-23en
dc.description.abstractCapsule: Avian influenza caused the loss of more than 20% of the Greenland Barnacle Goose population, but this impact varied between wintering areas and over time. Aims: The primary objective was to investigate the spatial and temporal mortality patterns due to avian influenza (H5N1) in wintering Greenland Barnacle Geese. Methods: We analysed a comprehensive dataset of marked individuals spanning six years, with observations from a network of observers across their wintering range. The study specifically compared the mortality rates of Greenland Barnacle Geese during the H5N1 outbreak years (2021/2022 and 2022/2023) with the three previous winters (2018/2019–2020/2021). Results: The study found significant spatial and temporal variation in mortality resulting from avian influenza outbreaks within the Greenland Barnacle Goose population on their wintering grounds in Scotland and Ireland. Some sites (Islay, Tiree and Sligo) experienced 30–56% reductions in survival rates, while others (Uist and Mayo) showed little or no impact. The timing of the main outbreaks also differed between sites. Excess deaths (in comparison with the previous baseline), estimated using mark-resighting data, indicated that mortality was considerably higher than suggested from direct field counts, reaching at least 20% of the global population in the peak outbreak winter (2022/2023). Conclusion: The results highlight the importance of spatial and temporal dynamics in avian influenza impacts. Disease dynamics should be integrated into population management models and used for setting appropriate thresholds for minimum population levels, to ensure resilience to disease outbreaks and long-term viability.en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationPercival, S., Bowler, J., Cabot, D., Duffield, S., Enright, M., How, J., Mitchell, C., Percival, T. and Sigfusson, A. (2024) 'Spatial and temporal variation in mortality from avian influenza in Greenland Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis in their wintering grounds', Bird Study, pp.1-8. https://doi.org/10.1080/00063657.2024.2439179en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1080/00063657.2024.2439179en
dc.identifier.eissn1944-6705en
dc.identifier.issn0006-3657en
dc.identifier.journaltitleBird Studyen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/16840
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisen
dc.relation.ispartofBird Studyen
dc.rights© 2024, Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an item published by Taylor & Francis in Bird Study on 23 December 2024, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/00063657.2024.2439179en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/en
dc.subjectAvian influenzaen
dc.subjectH5N1en
dc.subjectGreenland Barnacle Geeseen
dc.subjectWaterfowl disease ecologyen
dc.subjectMortalityen
dc.subjectCormack-Jolly-Seber modelen
dc.subjectSpatial variationen
dc.subjectTemporal variationen
dc.subjectPopulation management strategiesen
dc.titleSpatial and temporal variation in mortality from avian influenza in Greenland Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis in their wintering groundsen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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