Predictors of an early death in patients diagnosed with colon cancer: a retrospective case-control study in the UK

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Donnelly, Conan
Hart, Nigel
McCrorie, Alan David
Donnelly, Michael
Anderson, Lesley
Ranaghan, Lisa
Gavin, Anna T.
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Objective: Despite considerable improvements, 5-year survival rates for colon cancer in the UK remain poor when compared with other socioeconomically similar countries. Variation in 5-year survival can be partly explained by higher rates of death within 3 months of diagnosis in the UK. This study investigated the characteristics of patients who died within 3 months of a diagnosis of colon cancer with the aim of identifying specific patient factors that can be addressed or accounted for to improve survival outcomes.Design: A retrospective case–control study design was applied with matching on age, sex and year diagnosed. Patient, disease, clinical and service characteristics of patients diagnosed with colon cancer in a UK region (2005–2010) who survived less than 3 months from diagnosis (cases) were compared with patients who survived between 6 and 36 months (controls). Patient and clinical data were sourced from general practice notes and hospital databases 1–3 years prediagnosis.Results: Being older (aged ≥78 years) and living in deprivation quintile 5 (OR=2.64, 95% CI 1.15 to 6.06), being unmarried and living alone (OR=1.64, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.50), being underweight compared with normal weight or obese (OR=3.99, 95% CI 1.14 to 14.0), and being older and living in a rural as opposed to urban area (OR=1.96, 95% CI 1.21 to 3.17) were all independent predictors of early death from colon cancer. Missing information was also associated with early death, including unknown stage, histological type and marital/accommodation status after accounting for other factors.Conclusion: Several factors typically associated with social isolation were a recurring theme in patients who died early from colon cancer. This association is unexplained by clinical or diagnostic pathway characteristics. Socially isolated patients are a key target group to improve outcomes of the worst surviving patients, but further investigation is required to determine if being isolated itself is actually a cause of early death from colon cancer.
Predictors , Early death , Colon cancer
Donnelly, C., Hart, N., McCrorie, A. D., Donnelly, M., Anderson, L., Ranaghan, L. and Gavin, A. (2019) 'Predictors of an early death in patients diagnosed with colon cancer: a retrospective case–control study in the UK', BMJ Open, 9(6), e026057. (12pp.) DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026057