Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach

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dc.contributor.authorO'Flaherty, M.
dc.contributor.authorBandosz, P.
dc.contributor.authorCritchley, J.
dc.contributor.authorCapewell, S.
dc.contributor.authorGuzman-Castillo, M.
dc.contributor.authorAspelund, T.
dc.contributor.authorBennett, K.
dc.contributor.authorKabir, Zubair
dc.contributor.authorBjörck, L.
dc.contributor.authorBruthans, J.
dc.contributor.authorHotchkiss, J. W.
dc.contributor.authorHughes, J.
dc.contributor.authorLaatikainen, T.
dc.contributor.authorPalmieri, L.
dc.contributor.authorZdrojewski, T.
dc.contributor.funderMedical Research Councilen
dc.contributor.funderScottish Government Health and Social Care Directorateen
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Society of Cardiologyen
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-30T05:59:51Z
dc.date.available2019-10-30T05:59:51Z
dc.date.issued2016-01-11
dc.description.abstractBackground: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. Methods: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010–11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25–74 years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3–14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6–25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6–35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%–11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9–8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3–7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7–5.3%. Conclusions: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Society of Cardiology (EuroHeart II project, Grant no: 2010 12 04); Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/5); Scottish Government Health Directorates (SPHSU2)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationO'Flaherty, M., Bandosz, P., Critchley, J., Capewell, S., Guzman-Castillo, M., Aspelund, T., Bennett, K., Kabir, K., Björck, L., Bruthans, J., Hotchkiss, J. W., Hughes, J., Laatikainen, T., Palmieri, L. and Zdrojewski, T. (2016) 'Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach', International Journal of Cardiology, 207, pp. 286-291. (6pp.) DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.01.147en
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.01.147en
dc.identifier.eissn1874-1754
dc.identifier.endpage291en
dc.identifier.issn0167-5273
dc.identifier.journaltitleInternational Journal of Cardiologyen
dc.identifier.startpage286en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/8915
dc.identifier.volume207en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.en
dc.relation.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167527316301450?via%3Dihub
dc.rights©016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Contents lists available atScienceDirectInternational Journal of Cardiologyjournal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijcarden
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectCoronary heart diseaseen
dc.subjectMortality trendsen
dc.subjectPolicy modellingen
dc.subjectPreventionen
dc.subjectFood policyen
dc.subjectSmokingen
dc.subjectPhysical activityen
dc.titleExploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approachen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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