Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

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dc.contributor.authorZandersen, M.
dc.contributor.authorHyytiäinen, K.
dc.contributor.authorMeier, H. E. M.
dc.contributor.authorTomczak, M. T.
dc.contributor.authorBauer, B.
dc.contributor.authorHaapasaari, P. E.
dc.contributor.authorOlesen, J. E.
dc.contributor.authorGustafsson, B. G.
dc.contributor.authorRefsgaard, J. C.
dc.contributor.authorFridell, E.
dc.contributor.authorPihlainen, S.
dc.contributor.authorLe Tissier, Martin D. A.
dc.contributor.authorKosenius, A.-K.
dc.contributor.authorVan Vuuren, D. P.
dc.contributor.funderSeventh Framework Programmeen
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commissionen
dc.contributor.funderHavs- och Vattenmyndighetenen
dc.contributor.funderÖstersjöcentrum, Stockholms Universiteten
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-25T12:22:48Z
dc.date.available2019-02-25T12:22:48Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractLong-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.en
dc.description.sponsorshipBaltic Nest Institute (Grant 1:11 - Measures for marine and water environment)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationZandersen, M., Hyytiäinen, K., Meier, H. E. M., Tomczak, M. T., Bauer, B., Haapasaari, P. E., Olesen, J. E., Gustafsson, B. G., Refsgaard, J. C., Fridell, E., Pihlainen, S., Le Tissier, M. D. A., Kosenius, A.-K. and Van Vuuren, D. P. (2019) 'Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems', Regional Environmental Change.10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0en
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0
dc.identifier.endpage14en
dc.identifier.issn1436-378X
dc.identifier.journaltitleRegional Environmental Changeen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/7538
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringer Verlagen
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7::SP1::ENV/271534/EU/Joint Baltic Sea Research and Development Programme (BONUS) undertaken by several Member States with the participation of the Union/BONUSen
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AKA//291631/FI/Sustainable sHipping and Environment of the BAltic Sea region (SHEBA)/en
dc.relation.urihttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-018-1453-0
dc.rights©The Author(s) 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the CreativeCommons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use,distribution, and reproductionin any medium, provided you giveappropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a linkto the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.en
dc.rights.urihttp:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en
dc.subjectScenariosen
dc.subjectEnvironmental problemsen
dc.subjectAgricultureen
dc.subjectFisheriesen
dc.subjectShippingen
dc.subjectWastewater treatmenten
dc.titleShared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problemsen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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