Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population

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dc.contributor.authorPirotta, Enrico
dc.contributor.authorMangel, Marc
dc.contributor.authorCosta, Daniel P.
dc.contributor.authorGoldbogen, Jeremy
dc.contributor.authorHarwood, John
dc.contributor.authorHin, Vincent
dc.contributor.authorIrvine, Ladd M.
dc.contributor.authorMate, Bruce R.
dc.contributor.authorMcHuron, Elizabeth A.
dc.contributor.authorPalacios, Daniel M.
dc.contributor.authorSchwarz, Lisa K.
dc.contributor.authorNew, Leslie
dc.contributor.funderOffice of Naval Researchen
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Research Councilen
dc.contributor.funderInternational Association of Oil and Gas Producersen
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-14T19:39:54Z
dc.date.available2019-10-14T19:39:54Z
dc.date.issued2019-08-30
dc.description.abstractAnimals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quantify the population-level consequences of stressors (e.g. disturbance from human activities and environmental change) that can affect behaviour or physiology. In this study, we develop a dynamic state variable model for the spatially explicit behaviour, physiology and reproduction of a female, long-lived, migratory marine vertebrate. The model can be used to investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of behaviour and reproduction that allow an individual to maximise its overall reproductive output. We parametrised the model for eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus, and used it to predict the effects of changing environmental conditions and increasing human disturbance on the population's vital rates. In baseline conditions, the model output had high fidelity to observed energy dynamics, movement patterns and reproductive strategies. Simulated scenarios suggested that environmental changes could have severe consequences on the population's vital rates, but that individuals could tolerate high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. However, this ability depended on where, when and how often disturbance occurred. In scenarios with both environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance, synergistic interactions caused stronger effects than in isolation. In general, larger body size offered a buffer against stochasticity and disturbance, and, consequently, we predicted juveniles to be more susceptible to disturbance. We also predicted that females prioritise their own survival at the expense of the current reproductive attempt, presumably the result of their long lifespan. Our approach provides a general framework to make predictions of the cumulative and synergistic effects of human disturbance and climate change on migratory populations, which can inform effective management and conservation efforts.en
dc.description.sponsorshipOffice of Naval Research (grant N00014‐16‐1‐2858: ‘PCoD+: Developing widely‐applicable models of the population consequences of disturbance’); International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (E&P Sound and Marine Life Joint Industry Project)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationPirotta, E., Mangel, M., Costa, D. P., Goldbogen, J., Harwood, J., Hin, V., Irvine, L. M., Mate, B. R., McHuron, E. A., Palacios, D. M., Schwarz, L. K. and New, L. (2019) 'Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population', Oikos, 128(9), pp. 1340-1357. DOI: 10.1111/oik.06146en
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/oik.06146en
dc.identifier.eissn1600-0706
dc.identifier.endpage1357en
dc.identifier.issn0030-1299
dc.identifier.issued9en
dc.identifier.journaltitleOikosen
dc.identifier.startpage1340en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/8744
dc.identifier.volume128en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/NSF/Directorate for Mathematical & Physical Sciences::Division of Physics/8958074/US/Presidential Young Investigator Award: Program of Electromagnetic Nuclear Physics with Polarized Targets./en
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7::SP2::ERC/322814/EU/Eco-evolutionary dynamics of community self-organization through ontogenetic asymmetry/ECOEVODEVOen
dc.relation.urihttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/oik.06146
dc.rights©2019 The Authors Oikos published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/en
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectDynamic state variable modellingen
dc.subjectMarine mammalsen
dc.subjectPopulation consequences of disturbanceen
dc.subjectSynergistic effectsen
dc.subjectvital ratesen
dc.titleAnthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory populationen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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