Deterministic and stochastic effects in spreading dynamics: a case study of bovine viral diarrhea

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dc.contributor.authorGaller, Markus
dc.contributor.authorLüdge, Kathy
dc.contributor.authorHumphries, Rory
dc.contributor.authorMulchrone, Kieran F.
dc.contributor.authorHövel, Philipp
dc.contributor.funderDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaften
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-08T14:47:51Z
dc.date.available2021-12-08T14:47:51Z
dc.date.issued2021-09-23
dc.description.abstractBovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a disease in cattle with complex transmission dynamics that causes substantial economic losses and affects animal welfare. The infection can be transient or persistent. The mostly asymptomatic persistently infected hosts are the main source for transmission of the virus. This characteristic makes it difficult to control the spreading of BVD. We develop a deterministic compartmental model for the spreading dynamics of BVD within a herd and derive the basic reproduction number. This epidemiological quantity indicates that identification and removal of persistently infected animals is a successful control strategy if the transmission rate of transiently infected animals is small. Removing persistently infected animals from the herd at birth results in recurrent outbreaks with decreasing peak prevalence. We propose a stochastic version of the compartmental model that includes stochasticity in the transmission parameters. This stochasticity leads to sustained oscillations in cases where the deterministic model predicts oscillations with decreasing amplitude. The results provide useful information for the design of control strategies.en
dc.description.sponsorshipDeutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (within the framework of Collaborative Research Center 910)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.articleid093129en
dc.identifier.citationGaller, M., Lüdge, K., Humphries, R., Mulchrone, K. F. and Hövel, P. (2021) 'Deterministic and stochastic effects in spreading dynamics: a case study of bovine viral diarrhea', Chaos, 31(9), 093129 (9 pp). doi: 10.1063/5.0058688en
dc.identifier.doi10.1063/5.0058688en
dc.identifier.eissn1089-7682
dc.identifier.endpage9en
dc.identifier.issn1054-1500
dc.identifier.issued9en
dc.identifier.journaltitleChaosen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/12338
dc.identifier.volume31en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAIP Publishingen
dc.rights© 2021 Author(s). All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license der a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0058688en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectAnimalsen
dc.subjectBasic reproduction numberen
dc.subjectCattleen
dc.subjectDiarrheaen
dc.subjectDisease outbreaksen
dc.subjectAnimalen
dc.subjectBovineen
dc.subjectEpidemicen
dc.titleDeterministic and stochastic effects in spreading dynamics: a case study of bovine viral diarrheaen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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