Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

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dc.contributor.authorRücker, Viktoria
dc.contributor.authorKeil, Ulrich
dc.contributor.authorFitzgerald, Anthony P.
dc.contributor.authorMalzahn, Uwe
dc.contributor.authorPrugger, Christof
dc.contributor.authorErtl, Georg
dc.contributor.authorHeuschmann, Peter U.
dc.contributor.authorNeuhauser, Hannelore
dc.contributor.funderDeutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislaufforschung, Germany
dc.contributor.funderBundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Germany
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-15T17:13:24Z
dc.date.available2016-09-15T17:13:24Z
dc.date.issued2016-09-09
dc.date.updated2016-09-15T17:09:05Z
dc.description.abstractEstimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationRücker V, Keil U, Fitzgerald AP, Malzahn U, Prugger C, Ertl G, et al. (2016) Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts. PLoS ONE 11(9): e0162188. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162188en
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0162188
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.issued9en
dc.identifier.journaltitlePlos Oneen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/3090
dc.identifier.volume11en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen
dc.relation.urihttp://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?unique&id=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0162188.s001
dc.subjectChartsen
dc.subjectCardiovascular diseaseen
dc.subjectDeath ratesen
dc.subjectGermanyen
dc.subjectGerman peopleen
dc.subjectAge groupsen
dc.subjectCholesterolen
dc.subjectHealth risk analysisen
dc.titlePredicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Chartsen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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