Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it
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Date
2020-06-30
Authors
Killeen, Gerry F.
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Publisher
Elsevier
Published Version
Abstract
Countries with ambitious national strategies to crush the curve of their Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic trajectories include China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia. However, the United States and many hard-hit European countries, like Ireland, Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom, currently appear content to merely flatten the curve of their epidemic trajectories so that transmission persists at rates their critical care services can cope with. Here I present a simple set of arithmetic modelling analyses that are accessible to non-specialists and explain why preferable crush the curve strategies, to eliminate transmission within months, would require only a modest amount of additional containment effort relative to the tipping point targeted by flatten the curve strategies, which allow epidemics to persist at supposedly steady, manageable levels for years, decades or even indefinitely.
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Keywords
Coronavirus , COVID , SARS2 , Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 , SARS-CoV-2 , Model , Epidemiology , Outbreak , Zoonosis , Emerging infection
Citation
Killeen, G. F. (2020) 'Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it', Infectious Disease Modelling, In Press, doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.001