Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it

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dc.contributor.author Killeen, Gerry F.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-01T15:32:13Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-01T15:32:13Z
dc.date.issued 2020-06-30
dc.identifier.citation Killeen, G. F. (2020) 'Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it', Infectious Disease Modelling, In Press, doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.001 en
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en
dc.identifier.endpage 13 en
dc.identifier.issn 2468-0427
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/10192
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.001 en
dc.description.abstract Countries with ambitious national strategies to crush the curve of their Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic trajectories include China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia. However, the United States and many hard-hit European countries, like Ireland, Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom, currently appear content to merely flatten the curve of their epidemic trajectories so that transmission persists at rates their critical care services can cope with. Here I present a simple set of arithmetic modelling analyses that are accessible to non-specialists and explain why preferable crush the curve strategies, to eliminate transmission within months, would require only a modest amount of additional containment effort relative to the tipping point targeted by flatten the curve strategies, which allow epidemics to persist at supposedly steady, manageable levels for years, decades or even indefinitely. en
dc.description.sponsorship AXA Research Fund (Research Chair award) en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier en
dc.relation.uri http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300178
dc.rights © 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co.,Ltd. Open Access, Under a Creative Commons license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ en
dc.rights.uri https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ en
dc.subject Coronavirus en
dc.subject COVID en
dc.subject SARS2 en
dc.subject Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 en
dc.subject SARS-CoV-2 en
dc.subject Model en
dc.subject Epidemiology en
dc.subject Outbreak en
dc.subject Zoonosis en
dc.subject Emerging infection en
dc.title Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Gerard Killeen, Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email: gerard.killeen@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.date.updated 2020-07-01T15:24:59Z
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.internal.rssid 522349854
dc.contributor.funder AXA Research Fund en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle Infectious Disease Modelling en
dc.internal.copyrightchecked Yes
dc.internal.licenseacceptance Yes en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress gerard.killeen@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.bibliocheck In press. Replace AV with Published article. Add volume, pages, update citation. en


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© 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co.,Ltd. Open Access, Under a Creative Commons license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co.,Ltd. Open Access, Under a Creative Commons license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
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