Deterministic and stochastic effects in spreading dynamics: a case study of bovine viral diarrhea

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Galler, Markus
Lüdge, Kathy
Humphries, Rory
Mulchrone, Kieran F.
Hövel, Philipp
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AIP Publishing
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Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a disease in cattle with complex transmission dynamics that causes substantial economic losses and affects animal welfare. The infection can be transient or persistent. The mostly asymptomatic persistently infected hosts are the main source for transmission of the virus. This characteristic makes it difficult to control the spreading of BVD. We develop a deterministic compartmental model for the spreading dynamics of BVD within a herd and derive the basic reproduction number. This epidemiological quantity indicates that identification and removal of persistently infected animals is a successful control strategy if the transmission rate of transiently infected animals is small. Removing persistently infected animals from the herd at birth results in recurrent outbreaks with decreasing peak prevalence. We propose a stochastic version of the compartmental model that includes stochasticity in the transmission parameters. This stochasticity leads to sustained oscillations in cases where the deterministic model predicts oscillations with decreasing amplitude. The results provide useful information for the design of control strategies.
Animals , Basic reproduction number , Cattle , Diarrhea , Disease outbreaks , Animal , Bovine , Epidemic
Galler, M., Lüdge, K., Humphries, R., Mulchrone, K. F. and Hövel, P. (2021) 'Deterministic and stochastic effects in spreading dynamics: a case study of bovine viral diarrhea', Chaos, 31(9), 093129 (9 pp). doi: 10.1063/5.0058688