Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach

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dc.contributor.author O'Flaherty, M.
dc.contributor.author Bandosz, P.
dc.contributor.author Critchley, J.
dc.contributor.author Capewell, S.
dc.contributor.author Guzman-Castillo, M.
dc.contributor.author Aspelund, T.
dc.contributor.author Bennett, K.
dc.contributor.author Kabir, Zubair
dc.contributor.author Björck, L.
dc.contributor.author Bruthans, J.
dc.contributor.author Hotchkiss, J. W.
dc.contributor.author Hughes, J.
dc.contributor.author Laatikainen, T.
dc.contributor.author Palmieri, L.
dc.contributor.author Zdrojewski, T.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-10-30T05:59:51Z
dc.date.available 2019-10-30T05:59:51Z
dc.date.issued 2016-01-11
dc.identifier.citation O'Flaherty, M., Bandosz, P., Critchley, J., Capewell, S., Guzman-Castillo, M., Aspelund, T., Bennett, K., Kabir, K., Björck, L., Bruthans, J., Hotchkiss, J. W., Hughes, J., Laatikainen, T., Palmieri, L. and Zdrojewski, T. (2016) 'Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach', International Journal of Cardiology, 207, pp. 286-291. (6pp.) DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.01.147 en
dc.identifier.volume 207 en
dc.identifier.startpage 286 en
dc.identifier.endpage 291 en
dc.identifier.issn 0167-5273
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10468/8915
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.01.147 en
dc.description.abstract Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. Methods: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010–11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25–74 years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3–14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6–25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6–35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%–11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9–8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3–7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7–5.3%. Conclusions: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies. en
dc.description.sponsorship European Society of Cardiology (EuroHeart II project, Grant no: 2010 12 04); Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/5); Scottish Government Health Directorates (SPHSU2) en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier B.V. en
dc.relation.uri https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167527316301450?via%3Dihub
dc.rights ©016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Contents lists available atScienceDirectInternational Journal of Cardiologyjournal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijcard en
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ en
dc.subject Coronary heart disease en
dc.subject Mortality trends en
dc.subject Policy modelling en
dc.subject Prevention en
dc.subject Food policy en
dc.subject Smoking en
dc.subject Physical activity en
dc.title Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach en
dc.type Article (peer-reviewed) en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Zubair Kabir, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. +353-21-490-3000 Email:z.kabir@ucc.ie en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.description.version Published Version en
dc.contributor.funder Medical Research Council en
dc.contributor.funder Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate en
dc.contributor.funder European Society of Cardiology en
dc.description.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.journaltitle International Journal of Cardiology en
dc.internal.IRISemailaddress z.kabir@ucc.ie en
dc.identifier.eissn 1874-1754


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©016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Contents lists available atScienceDirectInternational Journal of Cardiologyjournal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijcard Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as ©016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Contents lists available atScienceDirectInternational Journal of Cardiologyjournal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijcard
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