Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis
Wiley, Regional Science Association International
The response by regional and national economies to exogenous impulses has a well-established literature in both spatial econometrics and in mainstream econometrics and is of considerable importance given the post-2007 economic crisis, which is characterised by a period of severe global instability resulting from unprecedented economic shocks. This paper focuses on dynamic counterfactual predictions and impulse-response functions derived from appropriate econometric models. These provide insight regarding the question of whether responses to economic shocks are transitory or whether they have a permanent effect. Analysis shows that output shocks have had permanent effects on productivity so that economies have tended not to return to the pre-shock path but rather adjust to new levels. This suggests that the current recession will be embodied permanently within the memory of some of Europe's leading economies as a hysteretic effect.
Vector error correction , European Union , Economic shocks , Crisis , Verdoorn law
DORAN, J. & FINGLETON, B. 2014. Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis. Papers in Regional Science, 93, S137-S165. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12048
© 2013 The Authors. Papers in Regional Science © 2013 RSAI. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Doran, J. and Fingleton, B. (2014), Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis. Papers in Regional Science, 93: S137–S165., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12048. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.