New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites

dc.check.date2019-11-13
dc.check.infoAccess to this article is restricted until 12 months after publication at the request of the publisheren
dc.contributor.authorParanunzio, Roberta
dc.contributor.authorChiarle, Marta
dc.contributor.authorLaio, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorNigrelli, Guido
dc.contributor.authorTurconi, Laura
dc.contributor.authorLuino, Fabio
dc.contributor.funderH2020 European Research Councilen
dc.contributor.funderConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricercheen
dc.contributor.funderConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche – Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI)TorinoItalen
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-17T16:12:24Z
dc.date.available2019-01-17T16:12:24Z
dc.date.issued2018-11-13
dc.description.abstractClimate change is now unequivocal; however, the type and extent of terrestrial impacts are still widely debated. Among these, the effects on slope stability are receiving a growing attention in recent years, both as terrestrial indicators of climate change and implications for hazard assessment. High-elevation areas are particularly suitable for these studies, because of the presence of the cryosphere, which is particularly sensitive to climate. In this paper, we analyze 358 slope failures which occurred in the Italian Alps in the period 2000–2016, at an elevation above 1500 m a.s.l. We use a statistical-based method to detect climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of slope failures, with the aim to catch an eventual climate signal in the preparation and/or triggering of the considered case studies. We first analyze the probability values assumed by 25 climate variables on the occasion of a slope-failure occurrence. We then perform a dimensionality reduction procedure and come out with a set of four most significant and representative climate variables, in particular heavy precipitation and short-term high temperature. Our study highlights that slope failures occur in association with one or more climate anomalies in almost 92% of our case studies. One or more temperature anomalies are detected in association with most case studies, in combination or not with precipitation (47% and 38%, respectively). Summer events prevail, and an increasing role of positive temperature anomalies from spring to winter, and with elevation and failure size, emerges. While not providing a final evidence of the role of climate warming on slope instability increase at high elevation in recent years, the results of our study strengthen this hypothesis, calling for more extensive and in-depth studies on the subject.en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationParanunzio, R., Chiarle, M., Laio, F., Nigrelli, G., Turconi, L. and Luino, F. (2018) 'New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2673-4en
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00704-018-2673-4
dc.identifier.endpage20en
dc.identifier.issn0177-798X
dc.identifier.issn1434-4483
dc.identifier.journaltitleTheoretical and Applied Climatologyen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/7312
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringeren
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020::ERC::ERC-COG/647473/EU/Coping with water scarcity in a globalized world/CWASIen
dc.relation.urihttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-018-2673-4
dc.rights© Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2673-4en
dc.subjectPermafrosten
dc.subjectRock glacieren
dc.subjectMountain permafrosten
dc.titleNew insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sitesen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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