An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting

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dc.contributor.authorDural-Selcuk, Gozdem
dc.contributor.authorTunc, Huseyin
dc.contributor.authorTarim, S. Armagan
dc.contributor.funderScience Foundation Irelanden
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-31T08:51:23Z
dc.date.available2020-03-31T08:51:23Z
dc.date.issued2020-02-27
dc.date.updated2020-03-31T08:35:19Z
dc.description.abstractIn recent history, there has been an increasing concern about population aging and the associated increased economic burden in terms of high health-care expenses and pension payments. The need for decision support tools that can explore population dynamics has become a prominent issue. This study presents a comprehensive framework where one can scrutinize the key demographic drives of fertility (Total Fertility Rate/Age-Specific Fertility Rate) over macroeconomic indicators (technology, education, human capital) under exogenous mortality. The integrated model in this article is developed based on a reformulation of the unified growth theory. In the reformulated model, namely the "economy-demography model," the population age/sex structure is preserved, age-specific mortality is included, and fertility is measured in conventional demographic terms. The model is then presented in system dynamics framework, and its practical use is showcased with data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScience Foundation Ireland (12/RC/2289-P2)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionAccepted Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationDural-Selcuk, G., Tunc, H. and Tarim, S. A. (2020) 'An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting', System Dynamics Review, 35(4), pp. 337-368. doi: 10.1002/sdr.1645en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/sdr.1645en
dc.identifier.eissn1099-1727
dc.identifier.endpage368en
dc.identifier.issn0883-7066
dc.identifier.issued4en
dc.identifier.journaltitleSystem Dynamics Reviewen
dc.identifier.startpage337en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/9791
dc.identifier.volume35en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.en
dc.relation.urihttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sdr.1645
dc.rights© 2020 System Dynamics Society. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Dural-Selcuk, G., Tunc, H. and Tarim, S. A. (2020) 'An integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics setting', System Dynamics Review, 35(4), pp. 337-368, doi: 10.1002/sdr.1645, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1645. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.en
dc.subjectSystem dynamicsen
dc.subjectAgeing chainen
dc.subjectEconomic theory of fertilityen
dc.subjectUnified growth modelen
dc.subjectCohort component modellingen
dc.subjectFertility declineen
dc.subjectTransitionen
dc.subjectMortalityen
dc.subjectGrowthen
dc.subjectPopulationen
dc.subjectValidationen
dc.subjectStagnationen
dc.subjectMalthusen
dc.titleAn integrated economy-demography model reframed in a system dynamics settingen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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