Contact-based model for epidemic spreading on temporal networks
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Published version
Date
2019-08-02
Authors
Koher, Andreas
Lentz, Hartmut H. K
Gleeson, James P.
Hövel, Philipp
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
American Physical Society
Published Version
Abstract
We present a contact-based model to study the spreading of epidemics by means of extending the dynamic message-passing approach to temporal networks. The shift in perspective from node- to edge-centric quantities enables accurate modeling of Markovian susceptible-infected-recovered outbreaks on time-varying trees, i.e., temporal networks with a loop-free underlying topology. On arbitrary graphs, the proposed contact-based model incorporates potential structural and temporal heterogeneities of the contact network and improves analytic estimations with respect to the individual-based (node-centric) approach at a low computational and conceptual cost. Within this new framework, we derive an analytical expression for the epidemic threshold on temporal networks and demonstrate the feasibility of this method on empirical data.
Description
Keywords
Bifurcations , Epidemic , Evolving Networks , Real world networks , SIR model , Networks , Nonlinear dynamics , Complex systems , Interdisciplinary Physics
Citation
Koher, A., Lentz, H. H. K., Gleeson, J. P. and Hövel, P. (2019) 'Contact-Based Model for Epidemic Spreading on Temporal Networks', Physical Review X, 9(3), 031017. (20pp.) doi: 10.1103/PhysRevX.9.031017