Restriction lift date: 2028-05-31
The economic and social burden of population loss across Irish regions
| dc.check.chapterOfThesis | The thesis should be under embargo for 3 years as I aim to have chapters published as papers. | en |
| dc.check.date | 2028-05-31 | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Doran, Justin | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Crowley, Frank | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | O'Shaughnessy, Mary | |
| dc.contributor.advisorexternal | Meredith, David | en |
| dc.contributor.author | O'Driscoll, Josh | en |
| dc.contributor.funder | University College Cork | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-02-14T13:19:50Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-02-14T13:19:50Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | en |
| dc.date.submitted | 2024 | |
| dc.description.abstract | In recent years, academics and policymakers have increasingly focused on population dynamics, particularly the issues of population loss and demographic shrinkage. Considering this renewed interest, it is important to examine population changes and identify the underlying processes that drive or influence them. Population change is a complicated process that is multi-faceted and can be examined from several different perspectives. The work of this thesis aims to examine population shrinkage and growth using a multi-disciplinary approach, incorporating theories and methods of cartography, economics, and geography. Ireland is a country which has experienced a unique population journey over time. Following decades of decline from 1841 to 1961, the population sharply rose over the period 1986 to 2016, making Ireland an interesting case to examine population change dynamics. Using Geographical Information Systems frameworks and regression analysis, this thesis examines population change at a small area level (specifically the Electoral Division level) across Ireland for a generational period of 30 years. By doing so, three key research aims are achieved: 1) to identify areas in Ireland that are experiencing population shrinkage and growth; 2) to evaluate the significance of population density and proximity to large towns on spatial patterns of population shrinkage and growth over both the long term (a generational span of 30 years), and the short term (10 years); 3) to measure the effects of proximity to motorway access points on adjacent areas, focusing on population growth, employment growth, and commuting mode choices. To carry this out, a novel dataset comprising of seven Irish Censuses of Population from 1986 to 2016 is compiled at the Electoral Division level. This enables a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of population change overtime, and at a small area level. The data to facilitate this analysis is collected from several sources including the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ordnance Survey Ireland (OSi), Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII), and Open Street Map (OSM). This thesis makes several key contributions to existing literature. Firstly, using this data, the population change across Ireland’s Electoral Divisions are visualised producing clear spatial patterns across the country in Chapter 4. The resulting map indicates that the Irish population change story could be heavily dependent on spatio-geographic factors. The map provides both a long-term view of population change and shorter intercensal views of population change, helping to provide an in-depth analysis of population trends across time at the local level. Chapter 5 builds on this contribution by examining the role of population density and distance to large towns on population change across a 30-year period and three 10-year periods that match with the business cycle. In doing so, this contribution examines population loss across the urban-rural continuum, focusing on both urban and rural shrinkage. The core-periphery framework is incorporated into the approach in line with suggestions from existing literature. A research gap is addressed through considering the underrepresented temporal aspect of shrinkage, particularly assessing any commonalities or differences between long- and short-term shrinkage. It is carried out at a small area level to capture population change trends that might be hidden when using more aggregated spatial scales. The results for the 1986-2016 model find that distance has a positive effect on shrinkage, meaning it increases the likelihood of shrinking, albeit at a decreasing rate. Meanwhile, population density has a negative effect on shrinkage, meaning it decreases the likelihood of shrinkage at an increasing rate. These results generally remain consistent across the different time periods, except 2006-2016 where distance is insignificant. Thirdly, the role of motorway access on population growth, employment growth, and commuting mode choices is examined in Chapter 6. Through using a Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DiD) model, the thesis finds that areas accessible to motorway access points experience higher growth rates for population and employment compared to those that are not within 10km. Additionally, these treated areas have a higher percentage of commuters who commuted to work or school in 2016 by car, while also having a lower percentage of commuters who commuted by public transport. There are several key policy implications from this research. Firstly, Chapter 4 identifies clear spatial patterns of population shrinkage. Targeted regional development policies and programmes that consider the fact that shrinking EDs tend to be found in clusters, particularly in the West and Midlands may prove effective. Shrinking EDs clustered together may indicate that the population change in the area could be impacted by localised contextual factors. Targeting the clusters may tackle the widespread regional phenomenon, rather than individual cases, allowing the polices to be more comprehensive and targeted, as they may address the overarching needs of an area due to the different policies required for shrinking areas surrounded by other shrinking areas and shrinking areas surrounded by growing areas, while more small area level place-base policies can address the specific needs of the areas. Secondly, Chapter 5 finds that shrinkage occurs in all types of places including urban, rural and peripherally based EDs. As such, a one-size-fits-all approach is unlikely to be successful. Place based policies that address the specific needs of rural and peripheral areas, and not just translate policies that work in the core urban areas elsewhere would be more appropriate. Chapter 6 provides insight into the impact of the motorways on surrounding areas. While the motorway causes population and employment growth in these areas, there is the trade-off of these areas having a higher percentage of commuters travelling by car. This car-centric growth can lead to several challenges, such as higher carbon emissions and pollution. It is suggested that the government should take this into consideration as they attempt to move towards more sustainable modes of transport. It is crucial that the government balance the benefits from the motorway and the need to promote more sustainable and environmentally friendly modes of commuting. Simply building motorways is insufficient to address all regional challenges; complementary policies tailored to local needs, such as land-use planning, housing strategies, and economic support, are essential for sustainable growth and reducing peripherality. | en |
| dc.description.status | Not peer reviewed | en |
| dc.description.version | Accepted Version | en |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | O'Driscoll, J. A. 2024. The economic and social burden of population loss across Irish regions. PhD Thesis, University College Cork. | |
| dc.identifier.endpage | 312 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10468/17044 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.publisher | University College Cork | en |
| dc.relation.project | University College Cork (CUBS PhD Scholarship) | |
| dc.rights | © 2024, Josh O'Driscoll. | |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject | Population loss | |
| dc.subject | Shrinkage | |
| dc.subject | Core-periphery | |
| dc.subject | Motorway | |
| dc.subject | Mapping | |
| dc.title | The economic and social burden of population loss across Irish regions | |
| dc.type | Doctoral thesis | en |
| dc.type.qualificationlevel | Doctoral | en |
| dc.type.qualificationname | PhD - Doctor of Philosophy | en |
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