Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

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Glynn, James
Gargiulo, Maurizio
Chiodi, Alessandro
Deane, Paul
Rogan, Fionn
Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.
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The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.
Carbon budgets , Climate change , Climate mitigation , Decarbonization , Equity , ETSAP , Paris Agreement , TIMES-MACRO , Integrated energy system models , Macroeconomic feedback
Glynn, J., Gargiulo, M., Chiodi, A., Deane, P., Rogan, F. and Ó Gallachóir, B. (2018) 'Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement', Climate Policy, pp. 1-13. doi:10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893