Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

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dc.contributor.authorGlynn, James
dc.contributor.authorGargiulo, Maurizio
dc.contributor.authorChiodi, Alessandro
dc.contributor.authorDeane, Paul
dc.contributor.authorRogan, Fionn
dc.contributor.authorÓ Gallachóir, Brian P.
dc.contributor.funderScience Foundation Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderEnvironmental Protection Agencyen
dc.contributor.funderSustainable Energy Authority of Irelanden
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Regional Development Funden
dc.contributor.funderHigher Education Authorityen
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-13T09:10:06Z
dc.date.available2018-07-13T09:10:06Z
dc.date.issued2018-04-26
dc.date.updated2018-07-13T08:52:26Z
dc.description.abstractThe Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEnvironmental Protection Agency and Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (Ireland’s Climate Change Research Programme 2007–2013 for the development of the Irish TIMES model (2011–CCRP–MS−3.5)); European Regional Development Fund and the Higher Education Authority ( PRTLI-5 Graduate Research Engineering Programme in Energy)en
dc.description.statusPeer revieweden
dc.description.versionPublished Versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationGlynn, J., Gargiulo, M., Chiodi, A., Deane, P., Rogan, F. and Ó Gallachóir, B. (2018) 'Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement', Climate Policy, pp. 1-13. doi:10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893en
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893
dc.identifier.endpage13en
dc.identifier.issn1469-3062
dc.identifier.issn1752-7457
dc.identifier.journaltitleClimate Policyen
dc.identifier.startpage1en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10468/6455
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherTaylor & Francis Groupen
dc.relation.projectinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/SFI/SFI Research Centres Supplement/12/RC/2302s/IE/Marine Renewable Energy Ireland (MaREI) - EU Grant Manager/en
dc.rights© 2018, the Authors. Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectCarbon budgetsen
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectClimate mitigationen
dc.subjectDecarbonizationen
dc.subjectEquityen
dc.subjectETSAPen
dc.subjectParis Agreementen
dc.subjectTIMES-MACROen
dc.subjectIntegrated energy system modelsen
dc.subjectMacroeconomic feedbacken
dc.titleZero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreementen
dc.typeArticle (peer-reviewed)en
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